First off, I don't believe Rhoads will be fired this year. I don't believe it's feasible and I believe that JP still has a belief that he can do it. I may or may not, leaning towards may not believe the same thing. However, since people are posting about this and bringing up utterly ridiculous conclusions, I figured I'd throw something together on some actual coaches with a chance to be offered the job and a chance they would take said job for whatever reasons. There are people I will either miss or not have paid attention to.
1. PJ Fleck (WMU) Experience- He's 34 years old. He was hired at WMU after being a G. assistant at OSU, WR coach under Kill at NIU, WR coach at Rutger under Schiano, and then WR coach at Tampa Bay. Pretty solid group of mentors there. He played at NIU and had a short stint in the NFL.
Pros- Very young. Recruited the best MAC class in 12 years at WMU according to Rivals in the midst of a 1 win season. Took a crap program from 1-11 to where it is today with a bunch of young guys. His top passer is a Soph, top RB a freshman and top Wrs are Sophomores. Seems like a fun guy who relates.
Cons-Would likely move on. The only thing that would possibly keep him is the fact he doesn't seem to shy away from challenges. Still, he's 34 and with success will have too many opportunities to pass them all up. He was hired as OC at NIU at one point and left a day later for a WR position at Tampa indicating to me loyalty isn't so big since NIU is his alma mater.
Did this shady thing when he was hired when he pulled scholarships weeks before signing day. Don't really care but still.
Likelihood of translation- High. History of turning a poor program with little tradition of winning around. Also recruited successfully to this school.
Likelihood of coming here-High. He would jump at a BCS gig.
2. Tom Herman- We know his history
Pros-Just dumptrucked MSU. Has advanced his offense under Urb. Also a young guy.
Cons-Would certainly move on as soon as possible.
Likelihood of translation- Moderate. I think his offense would be fine but the usual questions apply to him as a Coordinator. Could he get the other side of the ball in line. He has also never shown recruiting success at a place that isn't in a talent rich environment or is a national power.
3. Scott Frost (OC Oregon)- We know about his career at NU. Grad assistant at NU and KSU. Was then the LBer coach at UNI and then Co DC. Was WR coach at OU before becoming QB coach and OC. Coached Mariotta. Was OC for largest yardage output in school history which is kind of impressive considering where he is and the fact he did it in one less game.
Pros- Innovative offense based on killing safeties. Another young guy who seems to relate. Coached the Heisman front runner. From the midwest which would perhaps induce loyalty outside of a Nebraska offer.
Cons- Would go to Nebraska in a heartbeat.
Likelihood to translate- Moderate. Another OC, however, contrary to Herman he has been a DC at some level which may help.
4. Bob Stitt- From Nebraska. Was OC at Harvard. Currently head coach at the Colorado School of Mines which, if you haven't noticed is a good school. Had a guy win the equivalent of the Heisman there. Was put on the map by Dana Holgerson when Holgo stole the fly sweep from him. Runs a heavy option spread while taking pre snap decisions away from the QB and relying on simple execution. Every pass play has a route for any defense.
Pros- His offense works very well. Is a very progressive football mind and does things he wants. Some things may already be being done but he comes up with most on his own. Uses fourth down a lot. Seems like a pretty humble and decent guy who would fit in with the culture. A school that gives him a shot will likely
Cons- Has never been in anything approximating a high profile job with expectations. Always low level.
Likelihood to translate- His offense would work. The issue becomes everything else. Can he recruit? Can he hire capable assistants for this level? I don't know. He's a huge risk with a very high ceiling and a very low floor.
5. Jim McElwain (CSU)- Was OC under Saban. Turned around a pretty bad CSU program in quick order and is currently 9-1.
Pros- Saban, man. Seems to recruit well. Has turned a program around. Seems like a good offensive mind. Would likely bring a different system to the Big 12.
Cons- May not come here even if offered. He's making good money and will be on the short list of places like Florida or any other SEC team. Would be risky for him to put his reputation on the line in a place like Ames.
Likelihood to translate- High. He turned around a bad program without any inherent advantages.
Here are a few more guys who I just don't think would come here though they are legitimate names:
Narduzzi, Smart, Morris
There are a ton of guys out there to look at. There are guys who people will dismiss like Doug Nussmier who I think would take the job and a case could be made for them. I just felt like listing my top 5 guys tonight and I'm sure JP would go a totally different direction. Fleck is my guy simply due to the similarities in programs right now and his ability to out recruit everyone at his level. That's where you have to start. You have to be able to out recruit the KUs, TTs, KSUs and WVUs of the world.
1. PJ Fleck (WMU) Experience- He's 34 years old. He was hired at WMU after being a G. assistant at OSU, WR coach under Kill at NIU, WR coach at Rutger under Schiano, and then WR coach at Tampa Bay. Pretty solid group of mentors there. He played at NIU and had a short stint in the NFL.
Pros- Very young. Recruited the best MAC class in 12 years at WMU according to Rivals in the midst of a 1 win season. Took a crap program from 1-11 to where it is today with a bunch of young guys. His top passer is a Soph, top RB a freshman and top Wrs are Sophomores. Seems like a fun guy who relates.
Cons-Would likely move on. The only thing that would possibly keep him is the fact he doesn't seem to shy away from challenges. Still, he's 34 and with success will have too many opportunities to pass them all up. He was hired as OC at NIU at one point and left a day later for a WR position at Tampa indicating to me loyalty isn't so big since NIU is his alma mater.
Did this shady thing when he was hired when he pulled scholarships weeks before signing day. Don't really care but still.
Likelihood of translation- High. History of turning a poor program with little tradition of winning around. Also recruited successfully to this school.
Likelihood of coming here-High. He would jump at a BCS gig.
2. Tom Herman- We know his history
Pros-Just dumptrucked MSU. Has advanced his offense under Urb. Also a young guy.
Cons-Would certainly move on as soon as possible.
Likelihood of translation- Moderate. I think his offense would be fine but the usual questions apply to him as a Coordinator. Could he get the other side of the ball in line. He has also never shown recruiting success at a place that isn't in a talent rich environment or is a national power.
3. Scott Frost (OC Oregon)- We know about his career at NU. Grad assistant at NU and KSU. Was then the LBer coach at UNI and then Co DC. Was WR coach at OU before becoming QB coach and OC. Coached Mariotta. Was OC for largest yardage output in school history which is kind of impressive considering where he is and the fact he did it in one less game.
Pros- Innovative offense based on killing safeties. Another young guy who seems to relate. Coached the Heisman front runner. From the midwest which would perhaps induce loyalty outside of a Nebraska offer.
Cons- Would go to Nebraska in a heartbeat.
Likelihood to translate- Moderate. Another OC, however, contrary to Herman he has been a DC at some level which may help.
4. Bob Stitt- From Nebraska. Was OC at Harvard. Currently head coach at the Colorado School of Mines which, if you haven't noticed is a good school. Had a guy win the equivalent of the Heisman there. Was put on the map by Dana Holgerson when Holgo stole the fly sweep from him. Runs a heavy option spread while taking pre snap decisions away from the QB and relying on simple execution. Every pass play has a route for any defense.
Pros- His offense works very well. Is a very progressive football mind and does things he wants. Some things may already be being done but he comes up with most on his own. Uses fourth down a lot. Seems like a pretty humble and decent guy who would fit in with the culture. A school that gives him a shot will likely
Cons- Has never been in anything approximating a high profile job with expectations. Always low level.
Likelihood to translate- His offense would work. The issue becomes everything else. Can he recruit? Can he hire capable assistants for this level? I don't know. He's a huge risk with a very high ceiling and a very low floor.
5. Jim McElwain (CSU)- Was OC under Saban. Turned around a pretty bad CSU program in quick order and is currently 9-1.
Pros- Saban, man. Seems to recruit well. Has turned a program around. Seems like a good offensive mind. Would likely bring a different system to the Big 12.
Cons- May not come here even if offered. He's making good money and will be on the short list of places like Florida or any other SEC team. Would be risky for him to put his reputation on the line in a place like Ames.
Likelihood to translate- High. He turned around a bad program without any inherent advantages.
Here are a few more guys who I just don't think would come here though they are legitimate names:
Narduzzi, Smart, Morris
There are a ton of guys out there to look at. There are guys who people will dismiss like Doug Nussmier who I think would take the job and a case could be made for them. I just felt like listing my top 5 guys tonight and I'm sure JP would go a totally different direction. Fleck is my guy simply due to the similarities in programs right now and his ability to out recruit everyone at his level. That's where you have to start. You have to be able to out recruit the KUs, TTs, KSUs and WVUs of the world.
