‘Live By The Three, Die By The Three’ Is Mostly A Myth

[MBCyclones]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-by-the-three-die-by-the-three-is-mostly-a-myth/

I would love to see some analysis done on the college game and ISU.

 

[ImJustKCClone]

That would require effort. It's easier to blame every loss on a low 3pt stat.

 

[CyJack13]

It's odd that there's no mention of wins or losses in the article and it simply looks at variance in points scored. The "Live by the Three, Die by the Three" phrase usually applies to postseason play and not regular season games like the article looked at.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I know this is anecdotal, but...

Warriors, game 1 = 37% from three
Warriors, game 2 = 23% from three

They took 35 in the second game.

So another 5 makes (or 15 points) if they shoot their game 1 rate in game 2.

Easy W instead of a Cleveland grind-it-out win.

 

[runbikeswim]

I know this is anecdotal, but...

Warriors, game 1 = 37% from three
Warriors, game 2 = 23% from three

They took 35 in the second game.

So another 5 makes (or 15 points) if they shoot their game 1 rate in game 2.

Easy W instead of a Cleveland grind-it-out win.

Also, GS took so many quick threes where no other GS players were back they had 0 chance for rebounds on about 10 of them.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I think what matters most is whether or not the ball is going in the basket.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Also, GS took so many quick threes where no other GS players were back they had 0 chance for rebounds on about 10 of them.

Agreed--taking good shots when you've got good rebounders in position is generally a good thing. Long threes tend to produce quicker, odder bounces, too, which gives the offensive team a better shot at a board relative to how it works out in close-to-the-basket shots where the inside position of the defense should be close to overwhelming on a lot of potential rebounds.

At the same time, though, the scramble of transition and the break is going to leave a lot of fast guards open and undefended and in good shooting position. When you've got Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, you're going to give them the green light. It's fun for the crowd and tests the other team mentally to see transition threes raining down on them. Lord knows how much fun it was last year and the year before when Morris or Kane would find Naz or Georges for one of those a few times a game.

Would you really want to give those up considering how much of a dagger they are when they go in?