Am I missing something or is Vegas giving away money again? While sure, ISU can win this game, but with Jaz out and our struggles against Baylor I don't see this as a game I'd expect us to win. Maybe a 10% chance or so?
ISU only 1.5 pt dogs to Baylor?
- Thread starter Clonehomer
- Start date
I get what your are saying. I would have guessed Baylor was favored by 3-4 points. However, Vegas sets the line so that get even money on both sides. That allows them to make money no matter who wins due to the juice. Sometimes casinos will get an abnormal amount of action on one side. When this happens, they shift some of the action off to other casinos. That allows them to make money no matter who wins the game.
I put 10 on Baylor hoping to lose 10
This is not really true, listen to the Iowa Everywhere pods with the guy from Circa. The books often choose a side.
10%? Stop. This is college basketball. They would probably have better than a 10% chance of beating the best team in the country on the road.
Most-recent win at home vs. BU -- Jan. 13, 2018
Most-recent, any site -- March 14, 2019 (BIg 12 tournament)
There’s an easy way to prove that is not entirely accurate. KenPom has 0 interest in balancing wagers, only projection of outcomes. Vegas spreads typically only come out the day of and are nearly identical to KenPom; this is also why we know what the spread will be days in advance as KP already has projections listed.
I’ve been guilty of this for years, the ole emotional hedge where I’m hoping to lose the cash in exchange for a win.
Key stat from the ESPN preview of the BU - ISU game:
"Iowa State is eighth in the Big 12 shooting 32.6% from downtown, led by Eli King shooting 100.0% from 3-point range."
Crack research. Lol!
"Iowa State is eighth in the Big 12 shooting 32.6% from downtown, led by Eli King shooting 100.0% from 3-point range."
Crack research. Lol!
It is too bad he is simultaneously in the doghouse and a 100% confirmed bust.
I used to do this but recently started another system. If your team is the underdog you bet your team with the points. If your team is the favorite, bet the dog taking points. Both ways there's a chance for a double win (win bet and team wins). If you always bet for the other team you don't have the double win option when you're the underdog and you open up the double loss. e.g. Baylor wins by 1