I see Iowa State cutting loose, reverting to non-conference form in Kansas City, and adding 3 more "quad 4" wins to its Tournament resume while crushing TxT, Baylor, and KU. This team has grown immensely in the past several weeks, and has converted enigmatic role players Robert Jones and Jaden Walker into highly effective weapons during crucial portions of games late in the conference season. Remember. too, they held the lead *twice* in the final minute on the road at Kansas, and also held a lead *twice* in the at Baylor. Those could easily have been headline upsets.
Losing to Iowa State could propel Texas Tech to the 2022 Final Four. In fact, I think that the worse that Kansas, Baylor, or Texas Tech do in the Big 12 Tournament, the better they will do in the Big Dance. Why? Because they need rest.
This season has been a real grind for the Big 12. First, there was no bye week. That is, a week with only one game, which did not also result in a week with 3 games. Several teams had 3 game weeks late in the season. But Iowa State did not, and that gives us an important, hidden advantage. It is reminiscent of the 1987 Minnesota Twins, who won 4 home games in their 1987 World Series vs St Louis. Their "hidden" advantage was that it was a rainy late season. But, since they played in a dome, they did not have to play the extra make up games late in the season that the outdoor teams had to play. That gave themthe bit of extra steam they needed.