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Recent content by psyclonepower

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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    Ah - the open-mindedness is much appreciated. I acknowledge that no one really wants to put much stock in the ramblings of a new poster (and deservedly so)... ISU would hold H2H tiebreakers against all contenders, as you suggest, except for OU. Therefore, the only way ISU can have any trouble...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    That's the thing, though: the #2 spot in that case technically isn't in our control until TCU is guaranteed to finish behind OSU. Is it probably going to happen? Yeah. But there's no way that you can guarantee based on this weekend's results that it will, even if OSU wins and TCU loses. (See my...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    Okay... I'll bite one more time... the thing to keep in mind (as the OP mentioned) is that ISU already has an over 94% chance to make the title game if it wins out, so it probably makes more sense for us to be digging into the 6-win scenarios. I don't really see any conditions applied to results...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I mean, I'm great with pulling for ISU beating a higher ranked UT no matter the situation! So sure, I like that logic. And yes, it probably does get ISU closer to controlling its path than it is right now. If UT wins this week, then having OSU win and TCU lose would get things closer to...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I agree that we *probably* don't want OU to lose to TTU, though if WVU beats UT (against the wishes of most), then an OU loss to TTU almost certainly still wraps up the "control your destiny" situation for ISU. That's all I'm trying to say, I guess. If you work it out, there's no way to be left...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I mean, I'm not necessarily trying to be argumentative but you did mention that UT beating WVU lets ISU control its destiny, which it does not. I agree that UT beating WVU may potentially put us in a stronger position of making the CCG. It does not under any circumstances (this weekend)...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    No, UT beating WVU does not put us in that situation come Sunday morning. All that's needed to disprove that is a single counterexample (and there are many), such as what I gave above. The scenarios you mention don't account for a possible 3-way ISU/OU/UT tie, which can still go against ISU...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    ISU survives all 4-way tie scenarios at 7-2. It's just the 3-way ties that have any negative potential (or, of course, 2-way ties for second with OU).
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    To that end, if ISU and OU (forget about UT) win out, then ISU is in. I'm only saying *EDIT: for ISU* to control its destiny immediately after this weekend, WVU needs to beat UT.
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    I fully agree - if we're talking about what will *probably* happen then you're right. In terms of probability, there's a very slight preference for WVU to lose (Massey) or for WVU to win (FPI) - lots of viable scenarios on either side. I can understand the arguments you make, and agree (and...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    If UT beats WVU, then there's still a 3-way tiebreaker in play (OU-ISU-UT) that can keep ISU out if TCU finishes ahead of (or, in some cases, tied with) OSU. I'm not sure where this WVU loss stuff came from in the online community, but in the specific case I mentioned above ISU definitely...
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    Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

    It's been a LONG time since I've posted here, but finding a like-minded poster has drawn me back in. I've been maintaining my own stochastic simulation as well based on FPI (no particular reason for using that), and it has similar numbers for chances to make the title game: OU 73% UT 51% WVU 41%...
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