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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

bawbie said:
How and why did the "2024 MBB computer projections thread" turn into a completely ridiculous Hawkeye discussion?
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Conflating two separate concepts...

Resume (e.g., NET rating, KP rating, W/L by quad, etc.)

Analytics profile (offensive and defensive efficiency)

The current Iowa State team has a similar resume to the 2021 Iowa team (a #2 seed).

That team has a very different analytics profile than the current Iowa State team.

That Iowa team could score but sucked at defense.

This Iowa State team is at least as good on defense as that Iowa team was on offense and is much better on offense compared to where that Iowa team was on defense.

Different strengths and weaknesses, but 2024 Iowa State's weakness (offense) isn't as weak as 2021 Iowa's weakness (defense).
 
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NoCreativity said:
Mainly because I responded to some posters who were having anxiety attacks over a tool on Torvick called "similar resumes" that showed us similar to Iowa in 2021 even though the teams are nothing alike.
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Hey, we agree! They're nothing alike. We have our numbers in this conference. Iowa had theirs in their conference, which as other have pointed out happened to be a paper tiger. Even you agreed that that was a bad year for the B10.

So, to tie it back into computer projections... that's a bad comparison and we should look elsewhere to find better ones.
 
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Saturday's game with Tech is a consolidation game. The winning team is going to increase their holdings whether it is ISU or Tech.


GGRUE03XYAALX0p
 
NorthCyd said:
Yeah, that fact the hawks are plastered all over that thing shows its not indicative at all of how good a team is.
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yeah, its pretty random based on when some random games were won\lost. Its fun to watch at the start of the season as it all gets redistributed in the noncon tournaments, and fun to watch during tournament time as the land all gets captured, but in between its kind of meh
 
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NorthCyd said:
Yeah, that fact the hawks are plastered all over that thing shows its not indicative at all of how good a team is.
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alarson said:
yeah, its pretty random based on when some random games were won\lost. Its fun to watch at the start of the season as it all gets redistributed in the noncon tournaments, and fun to watch during tournament time as the land all gets captured, but in between its kind of meh
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Same with UCLA.

Imo it's more interesting for football just because of fewer games/chances to 'conquer' areas.
 
interrobang said:
Being our best shooter, it does make sense though. They are just too balanced as a team right now to just shut down one guy and hope it works.
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Isn't that just an awesome problem to have, right? Having a complete team build is crazy. We won a lot of our games.in the same general ways, but with different people filling the necessary roles to do so.
 
VeloClone said:
Saturday's game with Tech is a consolidation game. The winning team is going to increase their holdings whether it is ISU or Tech.


GGRUE03XYAALX0p
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How do we hold part of Iowa? Baylor beat us and we haven't beat anyone who has beaten Baylor since then?

I love this map, just can't figure it out.
 
bawbie said:
Do the same thing next year with 2 big, strong paint enforcer transfers and we'll be set
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Omaha Biliew and JT Rock!

Re: Gabe Kalscheur getting minutes on this team, some folks are having a short memory here. Gabe would absolutely get a lot of minutes. He was a top-tier perimeter defender, probably the best I've ever seen at ISU. The fact that he also scored 13 ppg on non-terrible shooting (in 2023 at least; 2022 he was just straight-up bad on offense), while guarding the best perimeter player on the other team every night, was gravy.
 
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Cyhig said:
Typically teams ranked 80th in defensive efficiency aren’t 2 seeds, too
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Typically teams that go 14-6 with 8 Quad 1 wins in the perceived 2nd best conference by all metrics will be a top 12 seed. It doesn't matter how good their defense is.

So you could make the case they could have been a 3 that year. We've really accomplished something here arguing about this now.

Ohio State was a 2 that year and West Virginia was a 3 with similar metrics of an elite offenses and bad defense. Baylor has similar metircs and will most likely be a 3 this year. So it probably happens more often than you think.
 
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bawbie said:
Do the same thing next year with 2 big, strong paint enforcer transfers and we'll be set
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Don't be shocked if they go small or if Kayden Fish steps up big time. Other than that, I bet we get a post transfer that makes us all say WTF with a plan to develop him like Rob Jones.

Kyle Green has worked magic with a lot of post players over the years. Taking a guy like Jones who seemed like he shouldn't be a power 5 guy and turning him into a key contributor. Go back and look at the history of post players (some undersized) and their continuous improvement.
Check out the year to year growth of these guys.
Adam Koch
Jordan Eglseder
Lucas O'Rear
Jake Koch
Seth Tuttle
Nate Buss
Jeremy Morgan ( guard who developed a post up game)
Marvin Singleton
Bennett Koch
Klint Karlsen
Luke McDonnell
Isaiah Brown
Austin Phyfe
Noah Carter

They had some post busts, but I could find a single post player who regressed while Green was there
 
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clone52 said:
Don't be shocked if they go small or if Kayden Fish steps up big time. Other than that, I bet we get a post transfer that makes us all say WTF with a plan to develop him like Rob Jones.

Kyle Green has worked magic with a lot of post players over the years. Taking a guy like Jones who seemed like he shouldn't be a power 5 guy and turning him into a key contributor. Go back and look at the history of post players (some undersized) and their continuous improvement.
Check out the year to year growth of these guys.
Adam Koch
Jordan Eglseder
Lucas O'Rear
Jake Koch
Seth Tuttle
Nate Buss
Jeremy Morgan ( guard who developed a post up game)
Marvin Singleton
Bennett Koch
Klint Karlsen
Luke McDonnell
Isaiah Brown
Austin Phyfe
Noah Carter

They had some post busts, but I could find a single post player who regressed while Green was there
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And Grant Stout.
 
NoCreativity said:
Typically teams that go 14-6 with 8 Quad 1 wins in the perceived 2nd best conference by all metrics will be a top 12 seed. It doesn't matter how good their defense is.

So you could make the case they could have been a 3 that year. We've really accomplished something here arguing about this now.

Ohio State was a 2 that year and West Virginia was a 3 with similar metrics of an elite offenses and bad defense. Baylor has similar metircs and will most likely be a 3 this year. So it probably happens more often than you think.
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But you even said the 2020-2021 season was a weird one. There weren’t many non conference games. That means net rankings aren’t as accurate. That then leads to inaccurate calculations to determine quadrant games (Q1-Q4). Almost all the games were vs conference opponents

What the ncaa tournament really showed that year was the big 10 was no where as near as good as the net rankings thought they were. Had there been more games, the net rankings would had worked itself out and Iowa wouldn’t have 20 Q1 games
 
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Cyhig said:
What the ncaa tournament really showed that year was the big 10 was no where as near as good as the net rankings thought they were. Had there been more games, the net rankings would had worked itself out and Iowa wouldn’t have 20 Q1 games
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That's pure speculation based on a very small sample size. The ACC was terrible in 2022 then had 3 teams in the Elite 8.
 
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