F*CK IOWA

[CyValley]

Cmon man. Would you expect a freshman majority team to get better as the season goes on, yes or no?

A few days ago, I made the following count. What's eiu look like next season?

2024 ISU

19 - Returning Offense and Defense starters
18 - Returning Offense and Defense backups
30+ - Freshmen/Redshirt Freshmen who played 2023

Maybe eiu returns just a ton. I don't know, why I ask. Just an early check.

 

[Cfinnerty16]

Yes.

Do you think Iowa got any better as the season went on?

Normally, yes, but you guys lost your QB, 2 TEs, & best player on the team. So no

 

[Cfinnerty16]

A few days ago, I made the following count. What's eiu look like next season?

2024 ISU

19 - Returning Offense and Defense starters
18 - Returning Offense and Defense backups
30+ - Freshmen/Redshirt Freshmen who played 2023

Maybe eiu returns just a ton. I don't know, why I ask. Just an early check.

This ^ in normal years people make the excuses that oh you wouldn’t have beaten us in November. But in this case, we had our youngest team ever this year.

 

[iahawks]

A few days ago, I made the following count. What's eiu look like next season?

2024 ISU

19 - Returning Offense and Defense starters
18 - Returning Offense and Defense backups
30+ - Freshmen/Redshirt Freshmen who played 2023

Maybe eiu returns just a ton. I don't know, why I ask. Just an early check.

Don’t think any team can answer that with NIL and the portal. It will be very fluid for every team.

 

[CyValley]

Don’t think any team can answer that with NIL and the portal. It will be very fluid for every team.

Good point, I'll try to remember to post this question after The Portal closes for business this year.

 

[Iowa'd]

Off games happen for even the best of teams. That said, it’s hard to argue getting shellacked by the one team that won 8 or more games one your schedule was an outlier when you also played a whole bunch of very close games against 5-7 and 7-5 teams. Yes, close games are their style, but 5 if their 10 wins were by a TD or less. A top 20 team should not be playing that many close games against .500 teams. IMO, that’s a better indicator of where Iowa would be with an average P5 SOS.

You're right in many ways.

And I do agree that it would have been interesting if not fascinating to see how Iowa would have fared versus an average P5 SOS.

I was thinking today about what would have been the output if your computer or AI simulated Iowa games against their completed SOS. All things being equal. And my thought is that it would have come out to somewhere around 7-5. Maybe 6-6. Either/or most likely. At tops 8-4.

So what does that tell you about the Iowa team?

And in addition, both before and after the gambling news broke about ISU and it was announced the loss of five critical returning starters was finalized....the over/under on future total wins for ISU remained at 5.5. That number didn't budge.

And so what does that tell you about Iowa State?

And Iowa, who had far less losses from gambling than ISU, had a pre-season futures O/U wins at 8.5. And their number didn't budge.

Both teams beat their futures wins by 1.5 wins.

Each at +995 odds.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that both teams were underestimated and overachieved. Which is a great thing.

 

[Iowa'd]

Yes.

Do you think Iowa got any better as the season went on?

I think Iowa's run defense improve quite a bit. And the offensive line improved quite a bit. Deacon, while hit and miss, did improve - which should have happened given the last time he played in a competitive football game was his junior year in HS.

 

[Iowa'd]

Iowa this year reminds me of the Vikings last year. Won a ton of toss up games (nearly all of them), including against sub average teams. Rarely dominated a game. And they both had serious flaws as a team.
The stars happen to align just right for each team to pull out a large number of wins; however, that doesn’t correlate to anything. It doesn’t mean they have a strong coaching staff; it doesn’t mean they have a strong culture. They easily could be on the other side of those games, as the Vikings are finding out this year

Agree 100%. Vikings were 11-0 in one score games in 2022. Then were promptly exited from the playoffs. Good call.

 

[Jeremy]

I think Iowa's run defense improve quite a bit. And the offensive line improved quite a bit. Deacon, while hit and miss, did improve - which should have happened given the last time he played in a competitive football game was his junior year in HS.

But MI can do exactly what PSU did and just keep ramming it down their throats.

 

[Iowa'd]

Off games happen for even the best of teams. That said, it’s hard to argue getting shellacked by the one team that won 8 or more games one your schedule was an outlier when you also played a whole bunch of very close games against 5-7 and 7-5 teams. Yes, close games are their style, but 5 if their 10 wins were by a TD or less. A top 20 team should not be playing that many close games against .500 teams. IMO, that’s a better indicator of where Iowa would be with an average P5 SOS.

Iowa this year reminds me of the Vikings last year. Won a ton of toss up games (nearly all of them), including against sub average teams. Rarely dominated a game. And they both had serious flaws as a team.
The stars happen to align just right for each team to pull out a large number of wins; however, that doesn’t correlate to anything. It doesn’t mean they have a strong coaching staff; it doesn’t mean they have a strong culture. They easily could be on the other side of those games, as the Vikings are finding out this year

Yes.

Do you think Iowa got any better as the season went on?

But MI can do exactly what PSU did and just keep ramming it down their throats.

That's a fair shot. Deserved. Iowa didn't show up at all offensively in that 4th game of the year. Tough to compete in any game, especially in Happy Valley during a prime time white out, when your sucky offense loses 4 of 6 fumbles, lose TOP 45:40 - 14:33, have 4 first downs to PSU's 28, run 33 plays to the Nits 96.

It definitely was Fugly. A low point for sure.

Defense did their best. 10-0 at half. But that and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.

But, they moved on and did not let it define them. Went 7-1 after that gruesome experience.

 

[iahawks]

But MI can do exactly what PSU did and just keep ramming it down their throats.

Iowa will need to involve their safeties more than they like to against Michigan for sure. Will see if the coverage can hold up by bringing the safeties up closer to the LOS.

 

[Cfinnerty16]

You're right in many ways.

And I do agree that it would have been interesting if not fascinating to see how Iowa would have fared versus an average P5 SOS.

I was thinking today about what would have been the output if your computer or AI simulated Iowa games against their completed SOS. All things being equal. And my thought is that it would have come out to somewhere around 7-5. Maybe 6-6. Either/or most likely. At tops 8-4.

So what does that tell you about the Iowa team?

And in addition, both before and after the gambling news broke about ISU and it was announced the loss of five critical returning starters was finalized....the over/under on future total wins for ISU remained at 5.5. That number didn't budge.

And so what does that tell you about Iowa State?

And Iowa, who had far less losses from gambling than ISU, had a pre-season futures O/U wins at 8.5. And their number didn't budge.

Both teams beat their futures wins by 1.5 wins.

Each at +995 odds.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that both teams were underestimated and overachieved. Which is a great thing.

This was very thoughtful and insightful post, I like this new person.

 

[Iowa'd]

Iowa will need to involve their safeties more than they like to against Michigan for sure. Will see if the coverage can hold up by bringing the safeties up closer to the LOS.

I think it's simpler but more challenging than that.

Iowa needs to string together first downs and play field position. Give the defense some rest and try to stay in it.

AND, most importantly, they can't let Michigan get off to a fast start. They've done that the last two years and it's been a killer.

Make it a fist fight in a phone booth.

Harbaugh is going to pound the ball. Man on man. That's how he has built his team. Which is a DAMN GOOD TEAM.

They've got the dudes to run the table.

Gonna be a really tough game.

 

[exCyDing]

You're right in many ways.

And I do agree that it would have been interesting if not fascinating to see how Iowa would have fared versus an average P5 SOS.

I was thinking today about what would have been the output if your computer or AI simulated Iowa games against their completed SOS. All things being equal. And my thought is that it would have come out to somewhere around 7-5. Maybe 6-6. Either/or most likely. At tops 8-4.

So what does that tell you about the Iowa team?

And in addition, both before and after the gambling news broke about ISU and it was announced the loss of five critical returning starters was finalized....the over/under on future total wins for ISU remained at 5.5. That number didn't budge.

And so what does that tell you about Iowa State?

And Iowa, who had far less losses from gambling than ISU, had a pre-season futures O/U wins at 8.5. And their number didn't budge.

Both teams beat their futures wins by 1.5 wins.

Each at +995 odds.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that both teams were underestimated and overachieved. Which is a great thing.

Future win totals figured based on schedules. It’s a measure of a teams strength compared to their schedule. For example, the 20th best team playing the #1 SOS would have a lower future win total than the 21st best team playing a #40 SOS. Even though the #20 team is better, their schedule is far harder and they’re likely to win fewer games. I’m not a gambler, so correct me if I’m wrong here.

So Iowa’s O/U was 8.5 wins. What their win total have been if they played a B10 East schedule? Basically:

Michigan rather than Northwestern​

Ohio St rather than Wisconsin​

Maryland rather than Nebraska​

Indiana rather than Purdue​

I’m guessing that drops their future wins by 1.5 to 2, and it’s very unlikely Iowa goes better than 2-2 in those games. That drops them from 10-2 to 8-4 or worse. MD is probably a game Iowa wins excruciating close, but Indiana would be a win outside of a WTF kind of game.

 

[cycloner29]

This new troll @Iowa'd is trying to be an Iowa coach here.. no offense though.

 

[dafarmer]

Watching replay of the Iowa-Michigan 2021 game. KF and BF have not aged well. Preview of next Saturday.

 

[CY88CE11]

So without the schedules, you think ISU is better than Iowa this year?

Do you think Minnesota is better than Iowa this year?

 

[cedarstrip]

Happy Friday Eve everybody!

Start at 4:12:30

My favorite part is at 4:13:00. "cooper DeJean was waving for everyone to get away from it"-gary dolphin.

Also 4:15:05 "they were ONLY checking to see if he called for a fair catch, its going to stand"-rob brooks

What part is your favorite?

 

[BCClone]

They are not the better team. Iowa State would lose to Iowa. Iowa State will struggle to move the ball on Iowa. Iowa State is not good.

Do you think your username and avatar makes us think you’re an ISU?

 

[BCClone]

In my humble opinion I think first and foremost it tells us that Iowa has a strong coaching staff to go along with a strong culture within the program. I've been an Iowa fan for quite some time and the performance and winning they've arrived to this year is truly baffling, to the point where it is simply unexplainable.

Hard to predict or project what ISU would have done with Iowa's schedule this year, but I will note that I think Campbell and his staff did a remarkable job given the hand they were dealt in preseason. Losing your returning starting QB, TE, OL, RB and DL is no joke - and so ISU deserves a ton of credit for keeping it together and thriving. Shows good depth and a tough culture as well.

We all have our one-off games (Iowa's was PSU, ISU's was Oklahoma), but the bounce back is what matters...and I think both teams handled themselves extremely well.

SMH. These Hawkeye fans truly think the big ten west was solid. Play one ranked team and you think it’s a juggernaut