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2009 Prediction Thread Part 1: Non-Conf.

delt4cy

delt4cy

Well-Known Member
May 11, 2006
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Atlanta, GA
I posted this on one of the other boads and thought it may be good to have a *realistic discussion on the upcoming season.
(* key point realistic) I'm getting antzy and I want to talk football. Anybody in the same boat?

Let's look at non-conference 1st:

If Rhoads can put a game plan together better than Chizm, which won't take much, it is very possible that we can go 3-1 in non-conference games. We have 1 strong opponent in Iowa and 3 mediocre at best in NDSU, Kent St., and Army. (imo of course)

Here's my take:

NDSU - I think this will be a good warm-up game much like SDSU last year, don't know much about them but there is a difference between D1 & D1AA for a reason (although UNI disproved that a few years back), I think our offense will be way too much to handle for NDSU and our defense will suffice - W

Iowa - I think Iowa will be too much for us this fall, as they return most of their team and will have a lot of momentum carried into the start of the year. They did lose key players that play very well to our team though, (Running game, missing all Big 10 D-lineman, and another DL stud, solid DB, and a nice WR in Brodell unless he gets another year). A W wouldn't surprise me one bit but I expect to see a hard fought loss here - L (They win by 10-14 points)

@ Kent State - I think we pull this one out. They have a new QB, a huge chunk of their D is gone, I think we win. This will probably be the biggest ?, and biggest key to our non-conf. season. Get a road win against a MAC opponent and a few Big 12 wins are a possibility. I'll be glad to see a new QB, Edelman was a little waterbug that we couldn't get a handle on. Jarvis will be a tough test for our D, again. I say a close and hard fought win (3pts to 7pt dogfight) - W

Army - At home, following a win on the road, they were very poor last year, lose much of their defense. If anybody has further insight feel free. The do return a lot on offense, so that would be the largest cause for concern. Other than that I think the home crowd and experienced offense will be too much for Army to handle. We roll - W


I'll be back with my Big 12 assessment later. Any thoughts?
 
Maybe when analyzing individual games, in order to try and keep things as realistic as possible take out any mention of previous games during the year. I know momentum is a huge part of the season but if you start building on one win, the following games slowly start to get skewed. It's just a thought but otherwise pretty solid analysis.
 
I agree with most of what you said, but I think we beat EIU in Ames. They won't know how to prepare for our new schemes. Plus their QB is a complete weenie and he won't have Greene to hide behind!!:yes:
 
I've got to question the Iowa loss.....

Let's review how Iowa won last year at home, with the worst field conditions either team could have prepared for - but, who was better suited for that field......IOWA.

Iowa wins 17-5.....but although thats the only number that counts, there are numbers that prove the game was different then the score.

Quarterbacks
Iowa Stanzi/Christensen 9-19 122 yards.
ISU Arnaud/Bates 24-40 252 yards.

Running Backs
Iowa Green - 120 yds 1td
ISU Robinson - 61 yds 0td

Green is gone by the way.

ISU 18 first downs, Iowa 10.
Total Net yards - ISU 325, Iowa 240
Avg. gain - ISU 4.9, Iowa 4.6
Turnovers - ISU 3, Iowa 2
Time of Possesion - ISU 32:19, Iowa 27:41

Remember one thing about last years game - and i saw it first hand. The most dominant player for either team was Greene, and those weather conditions were absolutely perfect for a horse like him. And Brodells late touchdown was not ISU being outplayed, we did what we did all season - MISSED TACKLES.

So, i expect the Iowa defense to drop a bit against the run, because regardless of what every Iowa fan thinks, the loss of Kroul and King is huge. I know they think they have another to plug in and we will see, but those two guys were huge for Iowa all season. not to mention losing one of their best defensive players in Fletcher (DB), that defense will not match 2008 achievements.

On the offense, losing Brodell, Greene, Myers, and the heart and soul of last years offensive line in Bruggemann and Olsen, that offense will rely more on Stanzi and ol ricky bobbi will not be as effective as he showed with the stud behind him. And for all those already typing about how Jewel Hampton is going to break all of Greenes records - no chance in our lifetime. Kid might be good, but Greene put up numbers that no other Iowa running back has ever put up - thats a huge statement because Iowa's had some very good-great running backs and definitely some great Olines!!!!
 
KMAC_ATTACK said:
I've got to question the Iowa loss.....

Let's review how Iowa won last year at home, with the worst field conditions either team could have prepared for - but, who was better suited for that field......IOWA.

Iowa wins 17-5.....but although thats the only number that counts, there are numbers that prove the game was different then the score.

Quarterbacks
Iowa Stanzi/Christensen 9-19 122 yards.
ISU Arnaud/Bates 24-40 252 yards.

Running Backs
Iowa Green - 120 yds 1td
ISU Robinson - 61 yds 0td

Green is gone by the way.

ISU 18 first downs, Iowa 10.
Total Net yards - ISU 325, Iowa 240
Avg. gain - ISU 4.9, Iowa 4.6
Turnovers - ISU 3, Iowa 2
Time of Possesion - ISU 32:19, Iowa 27:41

Remember one thing about last years game - and i saw it first hand. The most dominant player for either team was Greene, and those weather conditions were absolutely perfect for a horse like him. And Brodells late touchdown was not ISU being outplayed, we did what we did all season - MISSED TACKLES.

So, i expect the Iowa defense to drop a bit against the run, because regardless of what every Iowa fan thinks, the loss of Kroul and King is huge. I know they think they have another to plug in and we will see, but those two guys were huge for Iowa all season. not to mention losing one of their best defensive players in Fletcher (DB), that defense will not match 2008 achievements.

On the offense, losing Brodell, Greene, Myers, and the heart and soul of last years offensive line in Bruggemann and Olsen, that offense will rely more on Stanzi and ol ricky bobbi will not be as effective as he showed with the stud behind him. And for all those already typing about how Jewel Hampton is going to break all of Greenes records - no chance in our lifetime. Kid might be good, but Greene put up numbers that no other Iowa running back has ever put up - thats a huge statement because Iowa's had some very good-great running backs and definitely some great Olines!!!!
Click to expand...

That sounds like a Hawkeye argument if I've ever seen one. Don't fall into that trap.
 
Boony said:
I agree with most of what you said, but I think we beat EIU in Ames. They won't know how to prepare for our new schemes. Plus their QB is a complete weenie and he won't have Greene to hide behind!!:yes:
Click to expand...

I agree that Iowa may not know how to prepare for our new schemes, but the question may also be will we even know our new schemes yet?
 
I posted this in another thread last night, but this is how I see it playing out:

NDakotaS - Win, no question.

Iowa - Toss up. With Greene being gone, the EIU's offense will struggle at times, but their defense should still be tough. It hasn't been Iowa's offense that has hurt us the past few years, hopefully Herman can solve that problem. I think ISU can defiantly win this game, depending on how long it takes for the team to gel.

@Kent State - This is like the Toledo game two years ago or the UNLV game last year. The key to winning this game will be the defense. I'm going to pencil it in as a win but...

Army - Win. The run defense will be tested, but it will be good enough to pull out a nice win. I think our linebackers will be to fast for them.

vs.K State - Win. KState will be last in the North this year. They have to find a replacement for Josh Freeman who was the primary reason for their offense last year. Remember that their defense allowed over 600 yards against ISU last year.

@Kansas - Loss. They may not win the North because of a tough schedule, but they will likely be the toughest team in the North this year. I think it will be a close game for most of it, but ISU will lose by 10-14 points.

Baylor - Toss up. This will be a very tough game. It is the kind of game that ISU usually loses, hopefully Rhoads can motivate them. Again, defense is the question and how much better it will be this year.

@Nebraska - Loss. If this was in Ames I might look at it differently. Nebraska will be down this year, but not out. I think ISU will hang for awhile but our defense won't be enough

@T A&M - Toss up. Our last road win was @ A&M, 4 years latter, we have a shot at another at A&M. This will be a shoot out and the team with the ball last will win.

Ok State - Loss. This will be a much closer game than the game this year. I think ISU will keep it within 2 touchdowns.

Colorado - Win. Colorado has little offense and their defense, though solid, has done little to impress me. I think Colorado will be in bowl contention, however, they will be far from great- I don't care what Hawkins thinks.

@Missouri - Toss up. Missouri will also be down this year, depending on how things fall, ISU may be playing for bowl eligibility. ISU normally plays Missouri tough, should be a close game that may go either way.

6-7 wins, 2-3 coference wins.

North prediction
Kansas
Nebraska
Missouri
ISU
Colorado
Kansas St.
 
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delt4cy said:
Iowa - I think Iowa will be too much for us this fall, as they return most of their team and will have a lot of momentum carried into the start of the year. They did lose key players that play very well to our team though, (Running game, missing all Big 10 D-lineman, and another DL stud, solid DB, and a nice WR in Brodell unless he gets another year). A W wouldn't surprise me one bit but I expect to see a hard fought loss here - L (They win by 10-14 points)
Click to expand...

They haven't had a sack against us since 2006 and I think the that streak will continue with Arnaud or Tiller ripping them apart, credit McFarland for the OL line coaching.

I was not impressed with Iowa and its crappy conference and never will be. The only reason they beat us there last year was our complete ineptness especially the coaching staff circus and a couple bad calls that decided the game. With a different coaching staff we could have scored at least 2 more times (remember we were in their red zone several times!!!!!) You forget they lose too much talent for 2009, for 2008 take away Greene and they probably would have finished 4-8, they weren't too far from 6-6 with him. I would be really surprised to see them have a winning season this year.
 
Jeremy says if we beat Iowa in football he will personally give everyone 500k more credits.:smile:
 
anticyclonic said:
They haven't had a sack against us since 2006 and I think the that streak will continue with Arnaud or Tiller ripping them apart, credit McFarland for the OL line coaching.

I was not impressed with Iowa and its crappy conference and never will be. The only reason they beat us there last year was our complete ineptness especially the coaching staff circus and a couple bad calls that decided the game. With a different coaching staff we could have scored at least 2 more times (remember we were in their red zone several times!!!!!) You forget they lose too much talent for 2009, for 2008 take away Greene and they probably would have finished 4-8, they weren't too far from 6-6 with him. I would be really surprised to see them have a winning season this year.
Click to expand...

Sure Iowa didn't get a sack in 08, but ISU hasn't SCORED A TD since 06. To think the ISU offense is going to blow up in 09 after not scoring single TD in two seasons is a HUGE overestimation.

You also claim "without Greene they would have gone 4-8, they weren't too far from 6-6 with him" Well Iowa was also pretty close to 12-0 (only 12 points away) with him, would you like me to make that argument?

Greene was a great back, but he was made to look even better because of the Iowa OL. I agree with previous posters that the loss of Rob and Seth will hurt, but keep in mind between 4 guys that will step into their place there is something like 35 starts. Iowa's OL is always good when it is experienced, regardless of the personnel. The 09 Iowa OL will be a force, and behind that line even I could run the ball effectively. Besides, is any ISU fan going to argue that the Iowa OL in 09 doesn't appear to have a decided advantage against the ISU front 7? I think that would be a pretty misguided argument.

To the poster above the analyzed the 08 game -

I agree with some of your points, but you downplay the fact that Iowa hadn't yet established a starting QB (Stanzi played his worst game of the year in his first start, throwing 2 picks to the ISU D) and will likely be much farther along next season. Iowa's inability to throw the ball in 08 was the only reason the game was close, and I suspect the passing game will be far more effective from the start in 09 with an established QB. Also, Iowa's OL was full of mostly Jr's and Soph.'s who were not yet established in their position on the line, Iowa's offensive production was far greater at the end of 08 than it was at the beginning - I highly doubt any ISU fan would argue that Iowa's O didn't improve throughout the season, and the O will carry that momentum going into 09.

The DL will be interesting to watch. I am very much aware of how much of a leader/contributor Mitch King was, but think Iowa's DL will not drop off that much in 09. Karl Klug was the Big Ten defensive player of the week in week 2 as a back up and saw a lot of time all season in 08, he will fill Kroul's role well. Christian Ballard will move inside from DE to DT to fill King's role, that is the position that I am concerned about, and only time will tell how it plays out. Any defense that returns 8 starters from the #2 scoring D in the nation isn't going to be bad at any rate, maybe just not as successful.

I think this one comes down to Iowa having too much of an advantage in the trenches for ISU to hang with. Over the course of the game ISU's DL/LB's get worn down by an experienced Iowa front and Iowa pulls it out 27-17. I think it will be a good game and I really think Rhoads will do good things for ISU, but the 09 team will be too inexperienced and too weak in the defensive front seven to pull this one out.
 
Nothing like predicting victory in February! That goes for both sides. Can we at least wait until the All-Star break, or the State Fair? Media day?
 
Valid point BryeC, but I wouldn't label Kent a Gimme just because of ISU's away game record in the last 3 seasons, but your point is well taken on NDSU and Army.
 
hawkfan said:
Sure Iowa didn't get a sack in 08, but ISU hasn't SCORED A TD since 06. To think the ISU offense is going to blow up in 09 after not scoring single TD in two seasons is a HUGE overestimation.
Click to expand...

And yet we're still 1-1 against you since 2006 - what does that say about the Hawks, considering how bad we've been? :wink:

Look - the two reason why I think we have a chance to win this is because this has actually been a very close series since 1999, with the exception of 2003 (and even that was a game for 3 quarters) and 2005 (when the Iowa football team came into Jack Trice Stadium full of themselves - face it, that #8 ranking got into their heads - and left humiliated). Other than that, for the last decade this series has been a tossup, and for the most part give the home team the advantage (which is the second point).

Am I predicting an Iowa State win? Not necessarily. We're installing a brand new offense and defense, and I don't necessarily think either side of the ball will have either roles down come the Iowa game. But then again the same thing was being said in 2007, and we still won the game - without scoring a TD...
 
hawkfan said:
Oh and for those of you Cyclone fans interested, I'm predicting a win in this game because Rivals.com predicts that Iowa will be in the running for the national title in 09 :wink:
Rivals.com College Football - Profiling the BCS title chase narrows the field
Click to expand...

Yeah, I remember the last time the Iowa football team and fans came into Jack Trice Stadium that "full of themselves" - the year was 2005 and most Iowa fans couldn't envision winning that game by any less than 30 points (somebody cue the audio). Remind me - what happened that day?
 
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