Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyclones500]

A more general/historic look -- Happened to see this.

Meet the man who thinks he 'screwed up' college football with a Supreme Court win

Andrew Coats, the lawyer who convinced the Supreme Court in 1984 to allow universities to maximize football revenue, leading to a sweeping upheaval today, looks back with regret on the landmark case he successfully argued.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[aeroclone]

If all of these Pac schools were worth $30M per school per year to ESPN and Fox the Pac would have gotten a TV deal done. They didn't because they aren't. We need to be done with expansion until the ACC implodes.

 

[LonelyCyKC]

Well this would be a horrific idea

Oh Boy, We could then swim from the west coast to Florida through the Panama Canal.

 

[alarson]

If all of these Pac schools were worth $30M per school per year to ESPN and Fox the Pac would have gotten a TV deal done. They didn't because they aren't. We need to be done with expansion until the ACC implodes.

Reportedly ESPN offered the PAC 30 mil.

The geniuses in the PAC counteroffered with 50 mil and ESPN told them where to go with that number.

 

[2speedy1]

If this last part does happen isn't that all the more reason to add strategically? Where do those 2-4 PAC schools stack up with the rest of the ACC options? For those who will likely still be there I gotta go deep before I hit one of those teams. VT, Louisville, Pitt, NCST, Duke, and Cuse are all for sure above the 4PAC members left. We're leaving long term value behind for a small short term boost.

That's also probably the end of any basketball schools and selling that contract separately as well, which is the one major thing the Big 12 can do to push forward and really make it so they can survive in whatever may come. Gonzaga, Creighton, Villanova, UConn, Marquette, etc are worth losing to take 4 west coast teams, 2 of which don't even want to be good at sports? Nope

Syracuse is one of the worst adds, and are probably below all 4 remaining Pac schools. Louisville is not great either.

Some of the others you mentioned are probably about even or may not be available after the B1G and SEC pick.

Ranking all 69 Power 5 schools by college sports value - Sports Illustrated

If the college sports started over, who would be most coveted? We break it down with a formula.

www.si.com

According to this Stanford is in the top 20 in value.
Most of the others mentioned are in the bottom 20.

of that list VT would be Next in value behind Stan, then NCST, then with Cal, Pitt, Duke, and Wake all basically equal in the middle. The bottom makes up several of the B12 New adds and Syracuse, and BC.

Point is, I am not sure any of what would be remaining of the ACC is really much better than what remains of the PAC, with Stanford probably better than all of them, and I am no Stanford fan.

The bottom 1/3 of the ACC is not really any more valuable than the bottom 1/3 of the Pac.

I am not saying I think we should take all 4 of the Pac, I just dont think saving spots for the ACC is that big of an issue. Beyond the best 4 ACC remainders I think the value of the very bottom of the ACC and the Pac is negligible. And in the end When the ACC does fall apart, you may see the SEC or B1G moving on a couple B12 schools therefore making spots for more.

Either way if you figure the B1G and SEC each add 4, out of the 18 schools in the Pac and the ACC, that leaves 10 Possible for the B12. if we figure we go to 24, that means we take 8 of those remaining 10.

So with that who is the worst 2 adds between the ACC and Pac, those are who we leave out. And when you look at it, are any of the bottom few teams that much different. I would argue that Syracuse, BC, OSU and Wazzu are all coin flips on who is better than the other.

 

[2speedy1]

If this last part does happen isn't that all the more reason to add strategically? Where do those 2-4 PAC schools stack up with the rest of the ACC options? For those who will likely still be there I gotta go deep before I hit one of those teams. VT, Louisville, Pitt, NCST, Duke, and Cuse are all for sure above the 4PAC members left. We're leaving long term value behind for a small short term boost.

That's also probably the end of any basketball schools and selling that contract separately as well, which is the one major thing the Big 12 can do to push forward and really make it so they can survive in whatever may come. Gonzaga, Creighton, Villanova, UConn, Marquette, etc are worth losing to take 4 west coast teams, 2 of which don't even want to be good at sports? Nope

One more thing, I do think you add strategically. Strategy being adding schools that our Media partners want and will pay for, and that dont reduce our income.

So as I was saying if ESPN/Fox or another partner wants them to be added, and is willing to pay up and not reduce our share, or possibly increase it in some way. Then you add whoever. If not you dont. That is the strategy, always will be.

 

[LonelyCyKC]

I’m not convinced the Networks are working 3-4 steps ahead, mostly because having a conference’s media deal now doesn’t mean they’ll have that conferences next media deal. Yes, the SEC and B10 are very cozy with their networks, but that doesn’t mean anything for the next round.

But as a thought experiment, let’s just say ESPN and/or Fox wanted to move some pierces around for the next round of realignment. Clearly, the B10 and SEC are a #1/#2 conference set. Would it be preferable to have a #3/#4 set of roughly equivalent conferences or a sole #3 conference with everyone else being another step down?

I’d argue a 3/4 set would be advantageous for a variety of reasons, and I mega-sized #3 conference might be too unwieldy and disproportionate to their #3 conference.

I think where the networks are willing to put their money for these PAC schools might give an indication of where they’d like things to go. If the add to the B12, the ACC is probably ****** long term. Like truly and terribly. The SEC and B10 are going big when those schools are available - like maybe more than 6. If they add the PAC to the ACC, it might indicate they’re looking to keep 4 conferences and further B10/SEC expansion would be on the small side.

The more I look at this, it looks like three 20 team conferences. I don't think that there are enough decent teams to make a fourth. The Pac 4 with the best of the Mt West could be 10, but where to get more? Split the Pac 4 with the northern teams to the B1G and the southern teams to the B12, and the best of the ACC split to the B12 (2 teams) and SEC (4 teams), but this could leave ND swinging in the wind. The alternate is four 16 team conferences with B12 and SEC stand pat, B1G losing 2 and build the fourth conference around either the ACC or PAC+MW.

Isn't this fun to plot and plan ........ and can't wait to read the next edition tomorrow.

 

[LonelyCyKC]

Eh, when teams are flying everywhere anyways oregon state isn't that bad as far as travel, being right along I-5. Can fly into PDX or Eugene. No worse than WVU from that aspect

From old ISU they are about the same. Perhaps eventually more interest in games to the west, but for W Va to Washington St, is a hum dinger of a long way.

 

[aeroclone]

Reportedly ESPN offered the PAC 30 mil.

The geniuses in the PAC counteroffered with 50 mil and ESPN told them where to go with that number.

That offer would have been for the whole league. We are now talking about the bottom 4 Pac teams. If the bottom 4 are worth that much, the league as a whole should have been even more. Probably not 50, but a good enough number to get a deal done.

 

[alarson]

From old ISU they are about the same. Perhaps eventually more interest in games to the west, but for W Va to Washington St, is a hum dinger of a long way.

Though it also depends how you're doing scheduling. Not every team is playing everyone every year. Especially when you add in divisions\pods\protected rivals, the true cross-country travel may be limited to an extent. WVU wouldn't be going to Corvallis or Spokane every year.

 

[Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman]

Travel expenses will add up as the conferences expand but some sort of regional forces will take hold. It really only affects a few sports at the most anyway.

Look at ISU’s schedule for golf or gymnastics. Heck most softball games are in the south until the middle of April already. The golf teams fly all over the country to play tourneys.

Stanford plays in the America east conference in field hockey and if they want to keep water polo teams they’ll just play against the same teams out west that they already do. Think about big 12 wrestling. Ohio state men’s volleyball is in the same conference as Lewis university and Quincy university. They don’t care. They’re a lot of examples of this in many sports where realignment means nothing. Athletic departments will survive if occasionally the football team has a 3 1/2 hr plane ride instead of a 1 1/2 hr plane ride.

 

[2speedy1]

That offer would have been for the whole league. We are now talking about the bottom 4 Pac teams. If the bottom 4 are worth that much, the league as a whole should have been even more. Probably not 50, but a good enough number to get a deal done.

If the top of that league was worth 30 and the bottom is worth...30 then they all are still worth 30.

I think this is closer to reality than Oregon and Washington being worth 70 and Stanford is worth 10.

If the top value teams Oregon and Washington were worth that much more, then the B1G would have been more willing to add them and at more than the half share or below they are getting.

My guess is the top of that conference was valued at 35ish middle teams including Stan and Cal were believed to be worth all about 30, and the bottom 2, in OSU and Wazzu being worth 25.

I just dont believe there is that big of a difference in the Pac 10 after USCLA, and also an ACC after the top few leave.

 

[CoKane]

Syracuse is one of the worst adds, and are probably below all 4 remaining Pac schools. Louisville is not great either.

Some of the others you mentioned are probably about even or may not be available after the B1G and SEC pick.

Ranking all 69 Power 5 schools by college sports value - Sports Illustrated

If the college sports started over, who would be most coveted? We break it down with a formula.

www.si.com

According to this Stanford is in the top 20 in value.
Most of the others mentioned are in the bottom 20.

of that list VT would be Next in value behind Stan, then NCST, then with Cal, Pitt, Duke, and Wake all basically equal in the middle. The bottom makes up several of the B12 New adds and Syracuse, and BC.

Point is, I am not sure any of what would be remaining of the ACC is really much better than what remains of the PAC, with Stanford probably better than all of them, and I am no Stanford fan.

The bottom 1/3 of the ACC is not really any more valuable than the bottom 1/3 of the Pac.

I am not saying I think we should take all 4 of the Pac, I just dont think saving spots for the ACC is that big of an issue. Beyond the best 4 ACC remainders I think the value of the very bottom of the ACC and the Pac is negligible. And in the end When the ACC does fall apart, you may see the SEC or B1G moving on a couple B12 schools therefore making spots for more.

Either way if you figure the B1G and SEC each add 4, out of the 18 schools in the Pac and the ACC, that leaves 10 Possible for the B12. if we figure we go to 24, that means we take 8 of those remaining 10.

So with that who is the worst 2 adds between the ACC and Pac, those are who we leave out. And when you look at it, are any of the bottom few teams that much different. I would argue that Syracuse, BC, OSU and Wazzu are all coin flips on who is better than the other.

This has Stanford above Florida State, that's just factually wrong no matter how anyone looks at it.

My big issue with the ACC stuff isn't necessarily we can't add anyone from the ACC(still think there's a point of diminishing returns) but why would they want to come here if it's even remotely close if we have 6 western schools? Nobody in the ACC who may be a yes vote wants the 4Pac members outside of Notre Dame. They want them to make it harder for the top brands to leave. With that, you're also writing off the future that benefits the Big 12 the most, which is being able to split the basketball package off.

 

[CoKane]

One more thing, I do think you add strategically. Strategy being adding schools that our Media partners want and will pay for, and that dont reduce our income.

So as I was saying if ESPN/Fox or another partner wants them to be added, and is willing to pay up and not reduce our share, or possibly increase it in some way. Then you add whoever. If not you dont. That is the strategy, always will be.

How will that help us on our next contract though? If we want there to be a Big 12 a long term approach is what we'll need to take.

 

[cyclo120]

As Mediocre football Vanderbilt with a below average crowd shows out again I ask again that we quit referring to the SEC and Big 10 as super conference’s based on the top half of the conferences when the have extremely weak bottoms.

 

[2speedy1]

This has Stanford above Florida State, that's just factually wrong no matter how anyone looks at it.

My big issue with the ACC stuff isn't necessarily we can't add anyone from the ACC(still think there's a point of diminishing returns) but why would they want to come here if it's even remotely close if we have 6 western schools? Nobody in the ACC who may be a yes vote wants the 4Pac members outside of Notre Dame. They want them to make it harder for the top brands to leave. With that, you're also writing off the future that benefits the Big 12 the most, which is being able to split the basketball package off.

Tell me what has FSU done in the last Decade to make them so Valuable?
Stanfords academics...help at least a little, and their overall Athletic department is the best in the country, almost every year. FSU is basically Nebraska, still holding on to some value from 2 decades ago.

None of those eastern schools will travel that often to the western schools, especially in a league of 24 schools.

Why would they come... well if the ACC implodes like the PAC, they really dont have a choice if they want to have any chance of staying in somewhere decent money. Otherwise they would be looking at the AAC type pay just like OSU and Wazzu are looking at, if they end up in the AAC or MTW.

 

[clone37]

This has Stanford above Florida State, that's just factually wrong no matter how anyone looks at it.

My big issue with the ACC stuff isn't necessarily we can't add anyone from the ACC(still think there's a point of diminishing returns) but why would they want to come here if it's even remotely close if we have 6 western schools? Nobody in the ACC who may be a yes vote wants the 4Pac members outside of Notre Dame. They want them to make it harder for the top brands to leave. With that, you're also writing off the future that benefits the Big 12 the most, which is being able to split the basketball package off.

I get what you're saying, but also as conferences hit 20+ members I think divisions or regional pods come about and then the TV networks force the conferences to schedule the top cross-division matchups each season.

 

[2speedy1]

How will that help us on our next contract though? If we want there to be a Big 12 a long term approach is what we'll need to take.

Again, tell me how Syracuse, BC, Louisville etc are that much more valuable than Stan or Cal... they arent. They just arent.

Like I said we may have 10 total teams including the PAC and ACC leftovers to pick from...for 8 spots. 2 teams left out. Can you tell me the bottom 2 teams in the ACC are much more Valuable that OSU and Wazzu?

 

[SCNCY]

I wonder as conferences start to get bigger and larger from a distance standpoint if you see smaller regional conferences for the non-revenue sports?

For example, keep football, m/w basketball, volleyball, and baseball in the conferences we see today. But then take the other sports and put them in local regional conferences to reduce travel costs. So track and field, soccer, swimming, etc. plays local schools. So we’d be in a conference with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Missouri, etc. for the smaller sports.

I know it’s not talked about, but is probably something that needs to be looked at.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Again, tell me how Syracuse, BC, Louisville etc are that much more valuable than Stan or Cal... they arent. They just arent.

Like I said we may have 10 total teams including the PAC and ACC leftovers to pick from...for 8 spots. 2 teams left out. Can you tell me the bottom 2 teams in the ACC are much more Valuable that OSU and Wazzu?

For 8 spots I'd pick:

Wazzu
Oregon St
NCSU
VT
Pitt
Louisville
Cal
Stanford