Hype Train Reminder and '23 Projections

[Cyghhh]

Careful with this. These new programs will now be on an even playing field financially. A program like Houston could be scary with its potential financial capabilities and recruiting areas.

Houston metro is 2 times the size of Iowa in terms of population. They're going to have a lot of advantages in the coming years as they begin to get as much revenue as us.

 

[throwittoblythe]

Was that reporting? I remember one poster in particular pushing that, but he's verrrrrrrry optimistic when he looks at things.

It was mentioned on more than one podcast.

 

[CycloneErik]

It was mentioned on more than one podcast.

Oof. That's an unnecessary deal.

 

[Land Grant]

8 wins against this schedule would be a tremendous result. Think of the hype for 2024 LOL.

Lots of reasons to be optimistic (new OL coach, ST coach). But it could also be same-old, same-old.

I'm betting on a scale that ranges from same-old, same-old to incremental improvement.

My optimism is that I don't foresee further cratering. If there hadn't been staff changes I'd have bet on that.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I figure that Saban and Alabama will be ready for Texas in Tuscaloosa this year after such a close game last year. I could see that one get ugly.

I think it will be close. Texas always plays to their perceived level of opponent imo, and especially so early in the season before they've suffered their first hit to morale

 

[madguy30]

It’s lack of talent, I’m sorry it just is

To overcome that means being really succinct in fundamentals and I just don't see it.

It's little things but how many times did we see receivers catch a hitch-type ball/route, and then try to juke or out run against the grain instead of just getting downhill asap.

 

[werdnamanhill]

I don't think it's a talent issue. Our recruiting rankings are totally fine. Last year's issues were coaching, youth, and lack of discipline. All fixable.

 

[t-noah]

They're big enough. Need to get mean. Period.

And.....violent. Period. LOL

 

[t-noah]

Here is my annual, too long hype-train reminder PSA and what I consider to be realistic expectations for the season.

This has nothing to do with Chris or Brent’s Podcasts – their analysis is always very informative and level-headed.

I have said for 17 years on here that there is a perfectly scheduled hype cycle. Doesn’t matter how bad/good the past season was or who we lost/gain, the hype cycle stays the same. It’s inevitable and part of human nature. We all want the best and set our expectations accordingly, sometimes without intention. And it’s not “bad”, it just helps to understand why some are seen as optimistic and some pessimistic at different points in time.

January to March – some pessimistic, some realistic expectations for the upcoming season.
April/May – rumors and rumblings of standout players, transfers in increase expectations a notch.
June – a bit of realism settles in due to lack of in-depth team activities.
July – rumors and statements about position groups, depth, and a few standout players increase expectations 2 notches.
August – hype train hits full speed and expectations increase another 2-3 notches.

Mid-August to season start – sky high expectations rather than a balanced assessment of who we gained/lost, how each player performed last season, how much growth a single player can truly gain in an offseason, etc. Anybody that doesn’t share those expectations gets labeled a pessimist (myself included). Again, this is natural and isn’t “bad”.

Season progresses and people start reaching for pitchforks when their expectations aren’t met. Pessimism, frustration, and anger sets in. Emotions cause chaos, game day threads are unbearable. People that hadn’t bought into the hype train and better predicted realistic expectations work to pick those people up off the floor and brighten their spirits.

I’ve always said – never listen to any hype, especially when stated as broadly as a whole position’s potential. Look at how each game went the prior year to determine where the specific strengths and weaknesses were. Anticipate realistic growth potential and evaluate what the new recruits/transfers bring in – keeping in mind freshmen have large growing pains.

Last year is a great example. We lost a lot of very close games, most in the margins. Knowing that our coaching style is to keep games close, you have to dig into why we lost each of those games. OL blocking, ST, RB injuries, TE injuries and lack of separation, WR lack of separation and route trees, offensive play calling and predictability, etc.

Then you factor in players we lost/gained. We somewhat ignored the Portal so most new talent are true freshmen. A net loss of roughly 2 key defensive players, but in positions we have good depth at. We lost our standout receiver but have some potential young talent in both WR and TE rooms – TE especially. RB we gain health and a few new youngsters with high ceilings. OL missed out on Portal targets so growth, strength, and fundamentals are going to be the difference.

Finally, you must look at coaching. With changes on Offense and Special Teams, there are unknowns. One thing we know for certain is that while the offense will still be fully in the mold of Campbell’s philosophy, the play calling and situational adjustments can only get better. Likewise, a severe lack of development of skill positions and the offensive line has plagued the team for years. We must assume the coaching changes will impact that for the better, but you can only expect so much in one offseason.

Personally, when I look at everything on my scratchpad, I see a year likely in the 5-7 win range. If we win in the margins like our Fiesta Bowl season, it’s conceivable our defense and an improved offense can drag us to 8 wins. I think that is a stretch given the tough schedule, youth we have, and the lost development we’re now making up for. Anything less than 5 wins would be a disaster on the recruiting trail. 5 wins would still hurt a ton. 6 wins is most likely if you consider the tossup games as 50/50. 7 wins if we make some good strides with offensive development (OL, WR, TE) consistency.

No matter what, try to remember to enjoy the season. There will always be ups and downs, try not to overreact to either polar end.

I was gonna say all that. You beat me to it!



Well stated, Jeremy, and good thread!

 

[NickTheGreat]

Thanks . . . I needed that. I'm a pessimistic person by nature but I have really bought into the hype the last few years.

 

[t-noah]

I was fully hyped until the targeting call in the Baylor game

That Baylor game was like... running in the open field, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, feeling the impending accolades and joy after your scoring run...only to get run over be a semi truck as you passed the last intersection.

 

[CardiacClones]

I’ve been summoned. Do you have your CF NutCup™ purchased yet?

 

[Aclone]

…Campbell has been known to embellish a bit and be wrong about things from time to time (see OL hype over the years, the Easton Dean hype train etc.).

Dean was injured all last year. So, how does that make Campbell “wrong”?

The 3-0 start and Campbell finally exercising his Cy-Hawk demons probably didn't help. I know I was full hype mode into October, probably until Brock's injury and loss to Kansas.

I’d really prefer he exorcises those demons, rather than giving them more exercise.

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

Someone already mentioned it, but we just need an OL. Let's say our passing game is garbage...if we can at least block for our runners, that should give us an edge. We didn't have an edge at all last year on offense. Defense I am predicting will take a step back but I firmly believe in Heacock's system

 

[loyalsons4evertrue]

Careful with this. These new programs will now be on an even playing field financially. A program like Houston could be scary with its potential financial capabilities and recruiting areas.

very true....people look at Houston right now and see Dana....well yeah he's not an outstanding coach and I don't see him lasting very long, but all it takes is one hire to completely change the direction of the program (Leipold for example)

 

[RealisticCy]

Someone already mentioned it, but we just need an OL. Let's say our passing game is garbage...if we can at least block for our runners, that should give us an edge. We didn't have an edge at all last year on offense. Defense I am predicting will take a step back but I firmly believe in Heacock's system

Agreed. Better results on 3rd and short and in the redzone comes down to OL play....we get that and make a couple kicks last year and 4 wins turns into 7 or 8.

 

[superiorcyclone]

With a great offensive line, issues concerning play calling, QB play, and receivers goes out the window. Play calling, running backs, and Quarterbacks become heroes. I hope there is a lot of talk about how great all three of those are this season as it will mean that our o-line is doing a great job.

 

[acoustimac]

Like others I see the two big pieces being the OL and special teams. Third would be play calling. If the OL is static compared to last year the team will likely end up with 3-4 wins. If the special teams just become decent that adds one win to the overall record. Even with improved line play I see 5-6 wins. We know how winning in the margins impacts teams just by watching TCU, Baylor and KSU the last few years. That final detail is the difference between a 5-6 win season and 7-8 wins.

 

[cyclones12321]

I like this guys analysis. Sorry if already posted. I think 5-7 with wins being: UNI, Ohio, TCU, Cincinnati and KU

 

[acoustimac]

I like this guys analysis. Sorry if already posted. I think 5-7 with wins being: UNI, Ohio, TCU, Cincinnati and KU

KU and TCU still have the guns to beat us. I think we get OSU though.