Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

They may be second fiddle in their broader market (Portland and Seattle), but so are we. So is KSU. So is OSU. I'm sensing a theme here. My point being that even if a school is "second fiddle" in a media market, that doesn't mean having a conference member there doesn't still bring in that media market, at least to a degree. How many KSU grads are there in the KC metro? As many as Oregon St grads in the Portland metro?

And all of those schools mentioned would not be choices if the tables were reversed. Notice all the schools you mentioned have not been picked up by those doing the picking either.

Just as everyone figured ISU would be left out a few years ago. Being similar to ISU is not a good thing when it comes to Realignment.

That doesnt mean many of us would not love to have them in our conference or to play against them, or even that we dont like them as institutions. What it means is, in realignment it is about money, and only money, and who brings the most value is what matters. OSU and WSU just dont bring the value. They would reduce the per team value, not add to it, or be equal to it.

 

[Clonehomer]

The real question is would you rather have WSU and OSU, or UH and UCF.

UH and UCF every day of the week. They have potential to rise above their current status.

 

[KnappShack]

The real question is would you rather have WSU and OSU, or UH and UCF.

For fit and fun - WSU and OSU

Straight cash is the other two

 

[Acylum]

Nm

I wouldn’t be upset if this is the first post I saw every time I opened this thread.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

UH and UCF.

Not that it matters, because it’s just a different situation. The Big12 had to expand. The PAC declined to merge. We were down to 8 members and being linked to the AAC. And in hindsight it’s a good thing we did, because BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati would have been PAC candidates after they found out USC/UCLA were leaving.

Yeah I would go with UH and UCF just on upside potential. With the PAC teams you’re going from one P5 to another. With the others you can sell the idea that the schools could step up with the new influx of resources. Five years from now it’s possible those schools actually go in the wrong direction and hurt their brands but even then they would just be at the same level of those other schools.

Also I have cinci ranked as 4th out of the additions just because their ceiling is the lowest and their history is as a stepping stone school.

 

[jcyclonee]

Yeah I would go with UH and UCF just on upside potential. With the PAC teams you’re going from one P5 to another. With the others you can sell the idea that the schools could step up with the new influx of resources. Five years from now it’s possible those schools actually go in the wrong direction and hurt their brands but even then they would just be at the same level of those other schools.

Also I have cinci ranked as 4th out of the additions just because their ceiling is the lowest and their history is as a stepping stone school.

I tend to agree with you about Cinci but there is some additional upside. It is in Ohio and Ohio may be the 4th best state for football recruiting in the country. A little more prestige does bring the potential for better recruiting in that state.

 

[cyfan92]

Let's have a serious chat about The University of Utah...

Their alumni size is 1/2 of BYU and similar to Iowa State while being located in a state similar in size to Iowa and their football stadium is 10K smaller than Jack Trice.

They are NOT a B1G target

 

[HFCS]

Let's have a serious chat about The University of Utah...

Their alumni size is 1/2 of BYU and similar to Iowa State while being located in a state similar in size to Iowa and their football stadium is 10K smaller than Jack Trice.

They are NOT a B1G target

They are coming off their greatest 25 years ever in football, BYU has been really average and not in a major conference, yet most studies put their fanbases as equal at best. In the long run BYU is and will be the larger fanbase.

 

[dafarmer]

Interesting thread re WSU.

Is that like Trump’s couple of weeks?

 

[CascadeClone]

I think that's entirely plausible.

IMO, there's three factions in play:

• The PAC conference as an entity separate from it's members, OSU, WSU, probably Cal and Stanford
• WA, OR, maybe Stanford, and Utah (but only in their delusions, could be fanbase only)
• CO, AZ, ASU, and Utah (in reality)

I think you have a good summary.

• Stuck in PAC
• Only stays if B1G says "not now"
• Prefers PAC but won't die for it

It's like the prisoners dilemma: they are better off as a whole together, but individually each is better off leaving. Can't trust anyone but WSU and OSU, so you better get yourself ready to rat.

I would add Stanford has another option - go Independent. They have the money to do it, and would be happy enough playing a BYU type schedule in football. Olympic sports in the MWC or whatever. It's good to have F-U money like that.

 

[HFCS]

I tend to agree with you about Cinci but there is some additional upside. It is in Ohio and Ohio may be the 4th best state for football recruiting in the country. A little more prestige does bring the potential for better recruiting in that state.

Ohio is also just a big population state to only have one major fb program, should be very easy for second program to maintain success in a major conference. They have nfl competition for fans but the local competition for players is nearly nothing because tOSU recruits a lot nationally anyway.

 

[CascadeClone]

Heard a comment online - asking if Texas is responsible for the death of the Pac12?

When the PAC came after UT, TT, OU and OSU, the deal breaker was apparently the LHN. Texas egos wouldn't cave on it. If that hadn't happened, the PAC would be fine, and we'd have a Power 3. USCLA probably doesn't happen.

Interesting alternative history anyway...

 

[HFCS]

I think you have a good summary.

• Stuck in PAC
• Only stays if B1G says "not now"
• Prefers PAC but won't die for it

It's like the prisoners dilemma: they are better off as a whole together, but individually each is better off leaving. Can't trust anyone but WSU and OSU, so you better get yourself ready to rat.

I would add Stanford has another option - go Independent. They have the money to do it, and would be happy enough playing a BYU type schedule in football. Olympic sports in the MWC or whatever. It's good to have F-U money like that.

I could also see them dropping football more than other programs after a few more decades of cte data without some significant change. Not saying it’s likely but if it happens it’ll be somewhere like Stanford or Cal.

 

[exCyDing]

I think you have a good summary.

• Stuck in PAC
• Only stays if B1G says "not now"
• Prefers PAC but won't die for it

It's like the prisoners dilemma: they are better off as a whole together, but individually each is better off leaving. Can't trust anyone but WSU and OSU, so you better get yourself ready to rat.

I would add Stanford has another option - go Independent. They have the money to do it, and would be happy enough playing a BYU type schedule in football. Olympic sports in the MWC or whatever. It's good to have F-U money like that.

Yeah, I could see Stanford going for that. It wouldn't be surprising if they worked out some kind of deal with the PAC leftovers like ND has with the ACC.

 

[RustShack]

Let's have a serious chat about The University of Utah...

Their alumni size is 1/2 of BYU and similar to Iowa State while being located in a state similar in size to Iowa and their football stadium is 10K smaller than Jack Trice.

They are NOT a B1G target

They are obviously an option they have looked into. B1G has different standards. They are an AAU school, they are in a a new state/market for them, they have a pretty good football program, they are a closer school for USC/UCLA.

Not saying they are going to the B1G, but there’s obvious reasons they are being vetted. Big12 vetted more than the four schools joining this year.

 

[Cloneon]

This is about survival of the big 12 schools, which means getting a conference that not only can be large enough and sound to be in position to not get locked out of future playoff plans by the SEC and Big 10, but that makes the most revenue it can.

Everybody needs to stop about the "culture" or "I don't want them because they don't want to be in the Big 12" crap.

Every team currently in the Big 12, PAC, and ACC wants to be in the Big 10 or SEC. Every one. The money difference now is so clear, even between SEC/Big 10 and third place Big 12 that everything will be completely binary. Whether it's UW or Oregon, or anybody else. If they Big 10 determines they want them, then they'll go to the Big 10. If not, they can either hold the PAC together or join the Big 12. If UW and Oregon get the Big 10 invite, then the PACs dead and the remaining schools that the Big 12 invites will join because that's going to be their only option for legitimate survival as a big-boy AD. The fact that Utah or ASU fans or ADs are in denial about this means nothing. They simply haven't run into the reality that very well may happen where it's Big 12 or die. If they face that reality, they'll gladly join and magically become the biggest Big 12 sunshine pumpers out there. Why? Because it's the only good option they'll have. And if BY and the ADs think Utah and ASU are the best adds in terms of revenue and strength toward playoff inclusion, then they'll add them.

There's nothing that says Okie State or TCU doesn't start kicking ass in the conference, cleaning up huge ratings, and start becoming a pain in the ass or talking about "merit-based revenues."

The Big 12 remainders aren't bound together by some cultural ties or friendships. They are tied together because this has been their option to stay relevant and survive. And if it smacks Utah or ASU in the face that joining the Big 12 helps them and the conference, then suddenly everybody will get on board.

As always spot on ... except ... The B1G invites must sustain the perception the media companies want to maintain their contract value per team. They can't just invite anyone willy nilly and that includes WA and OR unless their media partners agree on the incremental increase in the contract that makes everyone happy. I maintain the SEC and B1G contracts are as big as they can currently get given the current trends. At least for the near term (ie ACC contract duration [which at some point can dissolve prior to the official contract deadline])

 

[NorthCyd]

WTF is this? If I comment on a thread here I'm instantly a troll? Wow.

 

[Jkclone15]

Yeah, I could see Stanford going for that. It wouldn't be surprising if they worked out some kind of deal with the PAC leftovers like ND has with the ACC.

Would the WCC be an option for Stanford's non-revenue sports? Not sure how much longer Gonzaga will be there but if they stay there's decent basketball, the schools are less spread out than the MWC, and all private like Stanford.

 

[FerShizzle]

Let's have a serious chat about The University of Utah...

Their alumni size is 1/2 of BYU and similar to Iowa State while being located in a state similar in size to Iowa and their football stadium is 10K smaller than Jack Trice.

They are NOT a B1G target

this. they are maybe in the top 20 of Big 10 targets. maybe.

 

[HFCS]

this. they are maybe in the top 20 of Big 10 targets. maybe.

Colorado and Arizona seem more reality based than ASU/Utah, at least with what little we know publicly.

If Utah is a fringe Big Ten target Colorado would be a lock for Big Ten invite. I don't think either is true and I think the powers that be at Colorado are more aware of this. Maybe if the ACC/ND wasn't waiting there and there were no future possibilities there. Even then, they'd still be fringe.