UCONN is a blue blood in MBBall now imo. There aren’t many opportunities for a non Big 10/SEC to add blue bloods in FB or BBall. Think you gotta go for that.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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IMO the possibility of such an elite basketball league has to be appealing to Arizona. Then add in the probable difference of about $10 million per year. Colorado is coming back for sure.
The Twitters saying Oregon St docs showing a pretty decent forecasted increase in revenue.
Others saying that number is inflated.
So basically nothing unless it's something, but it looks like something will be coming or something
Bottom line. Twitter sucks.
Others saying that number is inflated.
So basically nothing unless it's something, but it looks like something will be coming or something
Bottom line. Twitter sucks.
Maybe they think they will have increased ticket sales due to a couple better teams leaving and they will win more?
That’s what I would say too. They are just stalling until the very end. The schools that have options and SDSU have to be fuming behind the scenes.
By not giving the number Kliavkoff is basically holding hostages. No one likes being a hostage.
I think any reasonable person knows the deal isnt great. If it were equal to or greater than the current Big12 TV deal it would absolutely have been made public. The fact is isnt out in the open tells you everything you need to know.
Oregon State leaking information about better than expected revenue is strategic as they know there is no ship to jump to. They arent going to be in the Big12. They need everyone to stay,
Maybe some info is starting to leak out from the schools? Oregon State has every reason to start spinning this as "not wonderful, but better than we expected, we are still in 100%". And CU has been having meetings. Maybe the deal is nearly done and starting to leak.
I've been to a U-Conn/ISU football game...the game right after we beat Iowa in that three overtime thriller. Steele was hurt in the U-Conn game and our mascot was thrown off of a stair case and broke his arm, I mentioned in an earlier post that fans showed up for the football game mostly to get autographs from the BB team and drink.
However, now that we might be looking at a conference with established BB powerhouses U-Conn (men's and women's), Kansas, Gonzaga, and Arizona I'm rethinking my natural hostility towards including U-Conn. Add this to our current Big 12 roster of powerhouse BB schools, some that shall remain nameless, and I calm down a little bit.
Then I think about that football game with U-Conn two decades ago when they ruined our chances for a football bowl game and I my hostility returns.
In U-Conn we may have an instant rivalry in football, but I wonder if they even remember.
Yes, I do carry grudges, but I'm old and don't care.
However, now that we might be looking at a conference with established BB powerhouses U-Conn (men's and women's), Kansas, Gonzaga, and Arizona I'm rethinking my natural hostility towards including U-Conn. Add this to our current Big 12 roster of powerhouse BB schools, some that shall remain nameless, and I calm down a little bit.
Then I think about that football game with U-Conn two decades ago when they ruined our chances for a football bowl game and I my hostility returns.
In U-Conn we may have an instant rivalry in football, but I wonder if they even remember.
Yes, I do carry grudges, but I'm old and don't care.
If I ever hit a big big lotto I'm going to subsidize a DI ISU hockey team
Every P5 school should show a forecast revenue increase over the next 5 years, just because of the move to a 12 team Playoff
Pac 12 Today - $6.6M/ year (12 Teams)
12 Team ESPN Extension (2024 & 2025 Seasons)- $11.6M/Year (est)
12 Team Open Market (2026 Season +) - $22M/Year (est)
So if the Pac12's new TV deal is around $20M level (similar to current contract), they should show increases YOY. That's why some media folks feel Pac12 should settle for a short term deal and hope the market is better in 2027/2028 time frame.
BUT, the issue for the Pac is further loss of current schools. When it comes time to decide on the open market split criteria, could Pac not be considered P5? Or do Big10 and SEC push for CFP to mirror the NCAA Basketball Tournament and ONLY teams in the Playoff earn their conference money. That would impact the Big12 and ACC as well.
I built a spreadsheet model for the tv contracts, taking into account:
Doing same model with P10 gave a range of $20-25M per team. I know that's "man lands on moon", since everyone has been saying/guessing those numbers all along, but to see it mathed out was pretty confirming for me. And honestly, reality is probably on the low end due to reduced competition and less juicy timeslots available for the P10.
I was thinking 60% P10 would stick together and stumble along. Now I think it's 10%.
- average viewership per game, by timeslot and network (from a full year of data)
- estimated tv value per game based on viewership, in pareto blocks, based on NY6 and CFP contracts and their avg viewerships
- estimated # of games in each viewership block, for entire season, by conference
- added 25% for basketball and other sports
Doing same model with P10 gave a range of $20-25M per team. I know that's "man lands on moon", since everyone has been saying/guessing those numbers all along, but to see it mathed out was pretty confirming for me. And honestly, reality is probably on the low end due to reduced competition and less juicy timeslots available for the P10.
I was thinking 60% P10 would stick together and stumble along. Now I think it's 10%.
This guy has been...."something" during all of this
