Not to mention…<<unequal revenue sharing has entered the chat>>
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Not to mention…<<unequal revenue sharing has entered the chat>>
Oregon seems like a school that could go independent for football if they needed to. That doesn’t seem to be a possible thing being floated though. Just barnstorm the biggest Nike schools in the country every year, have your other sports play in a conference.
I looked at the average viewer numbers on the different networks in different timeslots, and I think that there is demand for about 5-6 huge games per week and then about as many more medium games per week. Defining huge as 5M+ viewers and medium as 2.5M+ viewers.
So really, having 20-24 teams is probably enough; after that you are out of prime real estate and get lower quality games too. It would also probably concentrate the casual fans and increase those typical viewer numbers too, bringing added value to advertisers. Remember value of game is not linear to viewer numbers, its more exponential-ish.
Honestly, I hope its only 20. The more left in the 2nd tier the better for all left behind.
I'm sure they'd like to get a hard deal on the table, but if the PAC isn't able to do that, it's a pretty good indication they're not going to get one that everyone would agree to.
IMO, the corner schools are likely to be first movers. WAOR has some incentive to go ahead with whatever the PAC can put together and wait for the B10 invite.
If the PAC crumbles, the best case scenario for the corner schools is the B12. If the B12 also provides a better deal from now until if/when WAOR gets a B10 invite, what sense does it make to take a crappy PAC deal? An invite now doesn't guarantee an invite in the future, whenever that may be.
Yeah, I could see that. Phil Knight will surely spend every last penny trying to keep them relevant.
Keep in mind, everything any of us say here outside of the links shared/summarized is essentially just speculation and conjecture. I don’t think any of us know what ultimately happens at this point.
I don’t think any of us expected this to drag on from what- June? through today. Guessing we don’t get to June of this year though without something happening on the west coast.
I'm more focused on the grant of rights. It's awkward, because Oregon/Washington understandably don't want to get locked in before making one last run at the B1G. But the B1G can't do anything until they hire a commissioner, so it's an awkward waiting game, and the PAC doesn't have much time to wait.
Meanwhile, there's talk of Oregon and Washington pushing for unequal revenue sharing. There can maybe be an agreement worked out if the offer is good enough, but if you believe the $25 mil per team number being floated about, then there's no good way to get the other 8 on board as it would kill them financially.
If reports about these sorts of tensions are accurate, then I could see Arizona leaving first just to avoid the drama and landing on stable ground.
According to some reports, that hard deal is on the table now. So if you don't like the numbers, why bother talking GOR length?
The Colorado 247 is funny especially. Someone in there was confident they'll dominate the Big 12 and use that to get a Big 10 invite
Deal on the table as in George brought it to the member schools? Or just verbals bring floated out there? Guess I haven’t seen much if it is indeed the former.
One thing is for sure, Kliavkoff has botched the handling here and the spin as of late has gotten out of control.
If you like reading through PAC forums for realignment talk my favorite is the Cal forum. They are very clear eyed about the situation the PAC is in and their place in it. A surprising amount of good nuggets of info for a free board as well.
Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiiting SMU - Page 32 | Bear Insider
Page 32 of the Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiiting SMU discussion on the Bear Insider Football Growls forum.
Honestly even if the ink isn't completely dry yet, I imagine they've gotta at least know what the deal is by now. I imagine we're at the phase where schools are posturing, wrestling, and waiting to see if they'll all be able to actually get behind it.
Maybe two teams leave, let’s say the AZ schools. Pac grabs 2 others and lets them in for 15. WaOr lead that and say we get 35, assuming 25 is the number. That might hold them for 4-5 years.
WaOr want to buy time. If they go to big 12 we force them to sign longer.
Just listened to the Wilner/Canzano podcast. They had a retired Fox Sports tv exec on. It was pretty interesting to hear his way of looking at streaming in regards to the “total cost” vs cable/satellite.
The thing I couldn’t get past is that he was adding up the things like you’ve got $20 for Netflix, you’ve got $10 for espn+ and you’ve got $20 for Hulu. Then he just nonchalantly added on the cost of internet (which I think he put at $70) to say “well when you add it up it’s not that much different.
I have a big problem with the anti-cord cutting people limping in broadband with “cord cutting/streaming” services. That internet cost isn’t just for TV watching. It’s how a lot of people work, bank, use social media etc. so imo it’s pretty disingenuous to use that when comparing the cost of cable/satellite to streaming.
The thing I couldn’t get past is that he was adding up the things like you’ve got $20 for Netflix, you’ve got $10 for espn+ and you’ve got $20 for Hulu. Then he just nonchalantly added on the cost of internet (which I think he put at $70) to say “well when you add it up it’s not that much different.
I have a big problem with the anti-cord cutting people limping in broadband with “cord cutting/streaming” services. That internet cost isn’t just for TV watching. It’s how a lot of people work, bank, use social media etc. so imo it’s pretty disingenuous to use that when comparing the cost of cable/satellite to streaming.
I mean weren’t OuT part of the Big 12 GOR until 2025 or something? Doesn’t seem like that’s a major stumbling block to me.
Yeah. But negotiating to leave one year early is a heck of a lot different than 5 years early (just throwing that number out. Obviously depends on what the PAC agrees to). After all, if a GOR wasn't much of a stumbling block, the ACC would have seen defections by now.
I think the actual odds of the B1G adding Oregon/Washington soon are not great. But if I put myself in their shoes, I can see wanting to not commit until making one more run at it.
I'm sure if push comes to shove, they'd probably sign, but I think this overall tension is real and could potentially lead to a corner school saying "screw it".
I'd still bet on the PAC figuring it out and surviving at least for another cycle, but they don't appear to be in an easy spot right now...
Interesting to think of Cal relative to Rutgers as the last post dog in that thread.If you like reading through PAC forums for realignment talk my favorite is the Cal forum. They are very clear eyed about the situation the PAC is in and their place in it. A surprising amount of good nuggets of info for a free board as well.
Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiiting SMU - Page 32 | Bear Insider
Page 32 of the Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiiting SMU discussion on the Bear Insider Football Growls forum.bearinsider.com
I agree with Jhunsy that the 4 corner schools won't move unless Oregon or Washington move - or the latter demands unequal revenue and pisses them off. All the Pac schools are happy being together. I can see the 4 corner schools point. Why do it now ahead of Oregon / Washington when the Big 12 will likely take them this year, next year, year after, etc.? The exception is when it gets closer to 2030, about the time when the ACC schools will first make a decision on moving on. But if the Pac signs a 5-6 contract, that is still in this timeframe. Also, Yormark prefers the later time zones so the 4 corners will have the advantage over the possible ACC schools we would have a chance with.
Or for some reason the big 12 lets WaOr in with an easy out in 5 years if the big ten calls and with them we get a bump to 40MM. Then we tell the 4s to hang out and we will decide when we get to see who the ACC gives us.