Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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I enjoyed, I don’t like myself for seeking out the pain delivered to the PAC but as ISU fan I thought I was going to have to find another team to root for (18 months ago)
It was really hard to follow. Lots of non-sequiturs and weird noises.
Unless the SEC/Big Ten add every single significant program in Texas and Florida there will be teams outside those two conferences occasionally rising up and playing very elite football despite any media cash disadvantage.
Of course the same could occur with other programs in any state who have the right coach and fan/alumni support...but I don't think it's even particularly difficult for programs like Baylor, Houston, TCU, Florida State, SMU, Miami, UCF to field very good football teams without the SEC/Big Ten advantages. Even a place like Cincy or Pitt might deserve mention here because Ohio State and Penn St can only take so many local top recruits from those high talent states.
The other way to end that "rising up" reality is to literally breakaway where Big Ten/SEC teams don't play anybody else at all anymore.
Reports are that the Pac-12 is seriously vetting San Diego State and SMU. And as far as the Big 12, there's been reports of flirtations with Gonzaga as a non-football member, so I think it's quite possible you'll still see sort of movement from the G5.
Sure, but everyone is still questioning the reality of it all. I am just wondering if we are actually done. It kind of feels like it.
There are no teams in the G5 that have any value or they would already be in a conference. The PAC is grasping at straws and there is nothing saying that the G5 schools elevated to the Big12 will actually be any good. Hoping they will be but that’s a dramatic step up in competition for a lot of schools. Might take awhile for them to figure it out if they ever do.
If Pac gets decimated they will add teams that wouldn't have made the cut previously. Then it will be a question of if Pac is still considered a power conference depending on who is left.
Baylor, Houston, BYU, TCU, SMU, SDSU, Utah, Cincy, UConn, UCF, USF, BYU...these are all schools that weren't seen as slam dunk power conference teams at some point (or currently) for various reasons. Some going up, some up and down.
Now it seems like of course Utah or Baylor are P5 worthy. When Big 12 was formed there was no significant reason they were in but Houston and TCU were out.
I would say that BYU and maaaaaaaaaaybe Cincy were the last two in football that kind of seemed like they should have been in P5 all along. For UCF/USF and Houston/SMU it's the same thing I posted earlier that unless you add every single school in FLA and TX some will have great seasons here or there picking up the recruiting scraps. BYU was always on the outside due to pure circumstance.
Exactly. Even the four the Big12 added would be considered projects for the most part. But they at least have the fan following to build on and it's realistic that they could be a powerhouse in the future. I don't know what it'd take for SDSU and SMU to get to a power level, but it isn't like SMU can just buy a team like they used to. Price to do that has gone up too much with NIL.
ESPN and others have done countless "point system" things where they look at all programs.
BYU pretty consistently 30-45ish in those ahead of a huge chunk of existing P5s. The other adds closer to the 45ish-65ish range. ISU surprisingly high sometimes because they usually look at ticket sales and facilities quite a bit. None of them are a huge stretch but only BYU isn't toward the bottom of that top 70 kind of line.
I think the next step would be adding in some of the best basketball only brands and it seems B12 is kicking the tires on that. If B12 adds Gonzaga basketball only but doesn't add east coast, I wouldn't be surprised at the next shakeup to see ACC add some Big East basketball teams.
There is no longer a P5. That was a designation based on who held autobids the the NY6 bowl games. We are looking at a Super 2 with whoever constitutes the future versions of the SEC and B1G. Most of the prognostication says that they will each expand to 20 to 24 teams by pulling the remaining high profile brands from PAC and ACC.
Below the S2 there will be the B12 and whatever remains of the PAC and ACC. That may be as one consolidated conference or as multiple conferences. The question is: will the remnant PAC and ACC move to expand in order to try and hold a different version of their conferences together, or will they disperse to wherever they can land? The PAC is already trying to sure up their membership with SDSU and SMU. There really isn't anyone else west of the Mississippi that makes sense for them to target.
If the ACC had to backfill for a departing programs, I would guess they target Memphis, Tulane, USF, and maybe UConn. But if they get to the point where 6+ members are heading to the B1G and SEC, I have a hard time seeing the ACC hold together.
The B12 will not add anymore G5. It would make zero sense, and I dont think Yormark is an idiot.
I don't see any G5 schools making the jump to a power conference in the next 15-20 years. Conferences are only going to add a school for 1 of 2 reasons - either that school increases the distributions for current members, or the conference has lost schools and doesn't have enough to remain viable. The viability number is 10, the minimum for a conference to hold a title game.
I'd have to assume the best G5 schools would add less than $25m to the conference's media deals. The PAC's reported offers would fall somewhere in that range, and I'm sure they've run numbers and gotten quotes for all manner of scenarios. In short, if a school doesn't meet the PAC's minimum threshold to add value, it doesn't meet the higher thresholds the B12 or ACC have.
The P5 will continue if the PAC hangs together at 10, but the P4/G6 era will start if anyone else defects. I'd expect the PAC to backfill, but it won't be considered a power conference any longer.
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As long as the PAC is able to offer that playoff spot it will be considered a power conference for that. If they lose Oregon they are in major trouble. The Big12 had an amazing year with TCU rising to the top to help keep the Big12 in a respectful position
You're probably technically right, they'll be a Power conference by virtue of the auto bid to the CFP. That will be a huge reason why they'll backfill rather than completely disband. It'll be like the last days of the old Big East where they still had a BCS bowl, but everybody knew that would only last for the duration of the current deal.
Sounds like Boise is hitting the panic button
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I put together this hypothetical map of future realignment where the B1G, SEC, and B12 all go to 24 member teams (for football).
The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18
Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.
The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.
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The situation I see is the PAC cannot agree on expansion targets or a media deal, leading to the Corner 4 leaving for the Big 12, and B1G could then move it to pick up Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington. Yormark pushes to add Oregon St. and Wazzou to officially have teams in every time zone. So that gets us to: B1G - 20, SEC - 16, and B12 - 18
Then around 2028/29, negotiations around new media deals for the B1G and SEC will lead to them trying to pick away at the ACC. The SEC will eventually grab Clemson, FSU, Miami, GT, NC State, and VT, while the B1G would finally get ND along with UVA, UNC, and Duke. In order for the SEC to get to 24, they would target two teams from the B12. I chose Okie St and Kansas, but I could also see TCU and Baylor being in play. That gets both the B1G and SEC to 24 teams each, while the B12 is at 16.
The B12 then adds the remaining ACC teams - BC, Cuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Wake - which puts the league at 21. The last step would be to add 3 more schools. SDSU gets the conference into California, as well as two of SMU, Memphis, Tulane, and UConn. My preference would be Memphis and Tulane to reach further into SEC territory, but would entertain other options.