Housing market

The 2-3% rates gave a cushion, that cushion is gone. Houses will list and get accepted offers. The issue will pop when one person can’t get approved or sell their house at the 25% markup. That will trigger a domino effect.
 
As rates continue to go up, people will start looking for adjustable rate mortgages to get any short term edge they can. Seen it a million times. These type of actions could also create or add to a bubble. It really depends on how things play out with rates/home prices (and Inflation).

If I was buying a home right now I would do a 10/1 ARM - no question.
 
The 2-3% rates gave a cushion, that cushion is gone. Houses will list and get accepted offers. The issue will pop when one person can’t get approved or sell their house at the 25% markup. That will trigger a domino effect.

100%. Lets not pretend that people aren't already house poor a 2-3% rates either. I had this conversation over lunch with my relator friend a couple weeks ago. That 350-500k price point is going to get gutted.
 
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100%. Lets not pretend that people aren't already house poor a 2-3% rates either. I had this conversation over lunch with my relator friend a couple weeks ago. That 350-500k price point is going to get gutted.
When we bought our lots to build, I asked the realtor what I needed to offer down. I was used to farmland with 10%. Lots were 20k so I expected 2k and asked if that was right. She laughed and said $500 would make me a rock star. Most struggled with $100 to put with the offer. That was many years ago but apparently things haven’t changed per my wife who walks with a realtor every day.
 
Prices surged under historically low rates, though.

I wonder how many people locked in the low rates and as rates go up, will be less likely to sell keeping inventory low.

This will be a problem for some time. I'm in that boat. We don't like the area we live in, but our rate is in the 2's and our appreciation has sucked compared to other markets where people actually want to live.

We aren't priced out of a move to Denver or SoCal, but does it economically make sense when I would need to pay $725k for the 1,000 SQ ft condo I sold just a few years ago (for much less than that sadly).

Even moving within our market doesn't make sense now as my rate would pop and the first number on my principal balance would be $200k higher for an upgrade.

I've said it before but I have an empty nest couple on one side. They talked about downsizing like used to typically happen, but the numbers don't work.

Snowbirds on the other side. Across the street and old guy living alone, another empty nest, and a family of 3.

In 6 homes with at least 4 beds there are only 3 kids and 12 full time residents. Tough on inventory. Tough on folks wanting to form families.
 
Housing market has already started to cool with rates increasing so quickly. Several big banks mortgage departments went through massive round of layoffs last week. Wondering if that is the canary in the coal mine.
 
When we bought our lots to build, I asked the realtor what I needed to offer down. I was used to farmland with 10%. Lots were 20k so I expected 2k and asked if that was right. She laughed and said $500 would make me a rock star. Most struggled with $100 to put with the offer. That was many years ago but apparently things haven’t changed per my wife who walks with a realtor every day.

My mom is a mortgage lender... you should hear the stories.
 
Housing market has already started to cool with rates increasing so quickly. Several big banks mortgage departments went through massive round of layoffs last week. Wondering if that is the canary in the coal mine.

cough cough Wells Fargo cough
 
So what area is housing crashing in?
It isn’t crashing, the prices are leveling off and in some cases being slashed 10-20k. I’ve also seen houses in multiple cities stay in the market for sale for longer than a week. A year ago they literally went pending within hours.
 
It isn’t crashing, the prices are leveling off and in some cases being slashed 10-20k. I’ve also seen houses in multiple cities stay in the market for sale for longer than a week. A year ago they literally went pending within hours.

What cities?
 
It doesn't help people's ability to deal with the crazy home market, that most people's choice for vehicles is tilted toward SUV's or large trucks. Heard on the news recently the average new vehicle loan monthly payment is in the $600-$650 range. That equates to a new vehicle price over $47k.

There is not a lot of flexibility in a lot of people's budgets.

On an amusing side note, saw in the news this morning that Nissan is going to stop production of the iconic car brand Datsun! They have only been produced overseas in recent years. But it reminded me of a time when there were auto manufacturers that focused on low-price cars. Not saying they were well made, but they at least kept the Ford, GM and Chrysler's focused on production of vehicles at all price points.
 

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