SportsbookWire picks Iowa State winning 66-62:
Iowa State has the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency out of the 16 remaining NCAA Tournament teams, according to KenPom. Defense is more reliable than offense as teams have off-shooting nights all the time. But, I’d expect a top-ranked defense to be locked in for an elimination game.
Furthermore, Miami’s defense cannot stop a nosebleed and struggle to close out defensive possessions. The Hurricanes are 298th in defensive effective field goal shooting and 265th in defensive rebounding rate.
Essentially, I have more faith that Iowa State’s weak offense can find success against Miami’s terrible defense. However, I cannot say the same about Miami’s offense versus Iowa State’s defense.
Finally, Iowa State played a tougher conference schedule, had five more Quad 1 wins than Miami this season and college basketball guru Ken Pomeroy actually makes the Cyclones a 1-point favorite in his Iowa State-Miami game preview.