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ISU vs Iowa Matchup Math

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BobTheHawkHater

Active Member
Jan 21, 2008
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I can't help myself, I'm an engineer - I need to quantify this ISU / Iowa game using some basic math. Here's a table with the players I think will be matched up. For each row, the numbers must add up to 10. A higher number indicates who I think wins the matchup and the difference between the numbers indicates how much better I think the player is.

I tried not to be too much of a koolaid driver -- this is my honest assessment. See if you disagree with the matchups and/or the numbers. My table doesn't take into account a zillion factors like home court advantage or the fact that our guys are going to be quite tired playing 7 vs 9, but in the end I have us with a victory by a pretty small margin.

[TABLE="width: 352"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Kane[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Marble[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Thomas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Gesell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Ejim[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]White
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Olaseni
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Woodbury
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Morris[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Clemmons
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Uthoff
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Long[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Jok
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]McCabe
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

(Would love to see the results of this from the HawkeyeNation perspective.)
 
BobTheHawkHater said:
I can't help myself, I'm an engineer - I need to quantify this ISU / Iowa game using some basic math. Here's a table with the players I think will be matched up. For each row, the numbers must add up to 10. A higher number indicates who I think wins the matchup and the difference between the numbers indicates how much better I think the player is.

I tried not to be too much of a koolaid driver -- this is my honest assessment. See if you disagree with the matchups and/or the numbers. My table doesn't take into account a zillion factors like home court advantage or the fact that our guys are going to be quite tired playing 7 vs 9, but in the end I have us with a victory by a pretty small margin.

[TABLE="width: 352"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Kane[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Marble[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Thomas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Gesell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Ejim[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]White[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Olaseni[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Woodbury[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Morris[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Clemmons[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Uthoff[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Long[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Jok[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]McCabe[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]44[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

(Would love to see the results of this from the HawkeyeNation perspective.)
Click to expand...

McCabe and Oleseni over Hogue is a joke. I like Thomas over Gessel and Kane-Marble should be a split.

edit - you really don't have these players matched up properly. I should have thought about that before my initial response.
 
Last edited:
Just curious why you did not use a combination of Hawk players. For instance, Hogue vs the combination of Olaseni and McCabe. That would seem to better account for Iowa's depth. FWIW, I haven't seen ISU play this year so I have no idea. However, Uthoff is a better player than that.
 
theiacowtipper said:
Just curious why you did not use a combination of Hawk players. For instance, Hogue vs the combination of Olaseni and McCabe. That would seem to better account for Iowa's depth. FWIW, I haven't seen ISU play this year so I have no idea. However, Uthoff is a better player than that.
Click to expand...


Uthoff isn't better than Niang.
 
theiacowtipper said:
Just curious why you did not use a combination of Hawk players. For instance, Hogue vs the combination of Olaseni and McCabe. That would seem to better account for Iowa's depth. FWIW, I haven't seen ISU play this year so I have no idea. However, Uthoff is a better player than that.
Click to expand...

Yes, Uthoff is a good player. But he isn't a draw with Niang. If you are splitting 10 between them (which is what the OP did), it has to be 6-4 in favor of Niang. In fact, one could argue 7-3 Niang. And then it would be 8-2 Niang vs. Woodbury.

Marble is the only player on Iowa who scares me. The rest are role players. Talented role players but no one who is going to take over a game. Marble can. If Kane could get a 5-5 push (based on OP rating system), then we win. If Marble gets an edge, things could be dicey.
 
I'll play! Ill use the same matchups for comparisons sake.

Kane 4 6 Marble
Thomas 4 6 Gesell
Ejim 6 4 White
Hogue 6 4 Olaseni
Niang 7 3 Woody
Morris 6 4 Clemmons
Niang 5 5 Uthoff
Long 5 5 Jok
Hogue 6 4 McCabe

49 ISU
43 Iowa
 
If I were going to do this:

Kane - 4/6 - Marble
Thomas - 4/6 - Gessel
Hogue - 4/6 - White / Uthoff
Ejim - 6/4 - Basabe / McCabe
Niang - 7/3 - Woodbury / Oleseni
Naz - 7/3 - Jok
Morris - 5/5 - Clemmons

That comes out to 37/33 ISU
 
Niang's score needs to be cut in half to account for Woody's flopping which will have Georges fouled out by halftime.
 
Ahh, thanks - missed Basabe. Here's an update:

[TABLE="width: 352"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Kane[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 88"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 88"]Marble[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Thomas[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Gesell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Ejim[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]White[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Olaseni[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Woodbury[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Morris[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Clemmons[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Niang[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Uthoff[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Long[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Jok[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Hogue[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]McCabe[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"]Ejim[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Basabi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
bawbie said:
If I were going to do this:

Kane - 4/6 - Marble
Thomas - 4/6 - Gessel
Hogue - 4/6 - White / Uthoff
Ejim - 6/4 - Basabe / McCabe
Niang - 7/3 - Woodbury / Oleseni
Naz - 7/3 - Jok
Morris - 5/5 - Clemmons

That comes out to 37/33 ISU
Click to expand...

I see what you're saying, but there's just too much of a difference between White and Uthoff to average them together like this, IMO. I have flashbacks to last year at Iowa remembering how White torched us with his alleyoop dunks when we didn't get back. White can play on Marble's level when he decides to show up.
 
I'm just going to cover the obvious match ups.

Kane 5 - 5 Marble

Thomas 6 - 4 Gessel (I think Thomas has a better all around game than Gessel)

Hogue 5.1 - 4.9 White (This could probably be considered a homer pick)

Ejim 6.5 - 3.5 Basabe

Niang 7 - 3 Woodbury

BENCH

Morris 5 - 5 Clemmons

Long 6 - 4 Jok (Jok is bad defender)
 
theantiAIRBHG said:
I'll play! Ill use the same matchups for comparisons sake.

Kane 4 6 Marble
Thomas 4 6 Gesell
Ejim 6 4 White
Hogue 6 4 Olaseni
Niang 7 3 Woody
Morris 6 4 Clemmons
Niang 5 5 Uthoff
Long 5 5 Jok
Hogue 6 4 McCabe

49 ISU
43 Iowa
Click to expand...

This is almost exactly my assessment as well. I would have Morris/Clemmons even though and I would have to give Niang a 6-4 advantage over Uthoff. I mean don't you think Uthoff would start if he truly was as good as Niang?
 
LegendofRodA said:
This is almost exactly my assessment as well. I would have Morris/Clemmons even though and I would have to give Niang a 6-4 advantage over Uthoff. I mean don't you think Uthoff would start if he truly was as good as Niang?
Click to expand...

Uthoff is incredibly weak. Niang will eat him alive inside.
 
DreamyCy said:
I'm just going to cover the obvious match ups.

Kane 5 - 5 Marble

Thomas 6 - 4 Gessel (I think Thomas has a better all around game than Gessel)

Hogue 5.1 - 4.9 White (This could probably be considered a homer pick)

Ejim 6.5 - 3.5 Basabe

Niang 7 - 3 Woodbury

BENCH

Morris 5 - 5 Clemmons

Long 6 - 4 Jok (Jok is bad defender)
Click to expand...

That seems about right.
 
LegendofRodA said:
This is almost exactly my assessment as well. I would have Morris/Clemmons even though and I would have to give Niang a 6-4 advantage over Uthoff. I mean don't you think Uthoff would start if he truly was as good as Niang?
Click to expand...

Sure. I would love to see Uthoff start. But where do you start him? Woodbury would be the only starter who deserves to come off the bench right now, and Uthoff isn't a true 5. I suppose I gave that matchup a push because Niang is a monster when he shows up, but Uthoff is that annoying, long, white kid who can do a lot of things. He's the type of player you see at Butler or Wisky and he just pisses you off. I'm happy he's a Hawk.
 
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