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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

Agree Cydkar. Iowa schedule favors that, and an upset over Indiana in Bloomington would be icing on the cake for the Hawkeyes. Now if they lose to Nebraska and/or Purdue, that things could get interesting. But, as of right now, they are in good shape.

And frankly, we are in decent shape as well..

Cydkar said:
Iowa will get in.
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cloneteach said:
Back to ISU bracketology....
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I'm OK with that!

Returning to the Baylor game topic: A win isn't essential, but it'd help. If Baylor does return to top-50, it'll help that record, and finally get a road/neutral win of some substance, and it'd be a sweep over tournament-likely team. And if BU doesn't, it avoids additional loss outside top 50, which would be not as big a deal if there weren't sub-100 and sub-200 losses already in play.
 
Gunnerclone said:
The highest (lowest) RPI team to get in at large was #67. Iowa (currently 90,) is going to not only have to help themselves but also get help from those above them in the form of reduced SOS/losses and even then they still might not get into the 60's. Unless the committee is looking to **** everyone off and completely blow up historical precedence I don't think Iowa gets in regardless of what their conference record is.
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This is interesting.....I'm not sure Iowa's RPI will be 67th or better when the season ends.
 
cyclones500 said:
I'm OK with that!

Returning to the Baylor game topic: A win isn't essential, but it'd help. If Baylor does return to top-50, it'll help that record, and finally get a road/neutral win of some substance, and it'd be a sweep over tournament-likely team. And if BU doesn't, it avoids additional loss outside top 50, which would be not as big a deal if there weren't sub-100 and sub-200 losses already in play.
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it's an opportunity game. Lose and it won't hurt that much. Win and ISU could afford to lose a home game.
 
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gocubs2118 said:
I'm not sure if winning the one game in the B1G tourney is really going to help them all that much. From the looks of it right now, Iowa will be fighting with Illinois for either the 7 or 8 seed. If the standings held held now, they'd face either Purdue or Northwester. Beating either of those teams won't move the needle that much. Winning two games? Ya, Iowa probably won't even have to sweat it on Selection Sunday.

Still not sure if Iowa gets in with a 10-8 conference record but it will probably be closer than I originally thought.
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I agree, the opening round game for Iowa in the BTT would be more about them not losing than actually winning. The lose first round after going 4-1 at the end of the year, they probably knock themselves back out. We have to remember, the bubble is soft, and more teams get in. It's not as tough as it was even 3 years ago.
 
IHavNoCyCash said:

  1. Ryan West ‏@ryanpwest
    @kenpomeroy What are odds Iowa makes NCAA tourney? Rest of Big Ten schedule soft, looking at 9-9 or 10-8 finish.
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  2. 17 hrsKen Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
    @ryanpwest It could happen. Keep hope alive.
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  3. 17 hrsRyan West ‏@ryanpwest
    @kenpomeroy Well that, and they would finish 6th in best conference in nation. Odd not many are talking about them on bubble.
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17 hrsKen Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@ryanpwest Bracketologists generally don't project results. Gotta think 10-8 would get them consideration. 9-9 probably not.

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Wow. Iowa may need to win out.
 
For projecting end-of-season RPI, RPI Forecast and Live-RPI has expected RPI by record (e.g. Iowa's expected RPI if they go 21-10 is 69). The drawback is that you can't choose how a team gets the record. Also, the site doesn't consider conference tourneys (yet).* The site uses Sagarin's predictor ratings (similar to KenPom) for predicting individual games.

*Edit: Can click on "with conf tourneys" to see predictions including conference tournaments.
 
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RPI Forecast is an interesting tool. For simplicity sake, the predictor (Sagarin's) indicates that we will finish off 3-3 for the remainder of the season with wins over Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. It predicts our RPI would be 51, definitely a bubble team and likely one of the first 4/last 4 in my opinion.

If that is indeed the case and we go 1-1 in the conference tournament we will finish with a 21-12 record on the season our RPI remains nearly the same, continuing the bubble team trend.

What happens if we can that extra win, either in regular season or in the conference tournament and finish 22-12? Our projected RPI is then 37 which would likely make us an 'in' team with a 10-11 seed in my opinion. Our best case scenario is likely finished 5-1 (winning @ Baylor and vs KU) and then going 2-1 in the conference tournament; that would place us at a 24-10 record and a projected RPI of 21. Even going 1-1 in the tournament after the 5-1 regular season would put us at a projected RPI of 34 and a likely 7-9 seed.

Essentially, finished 4-2 in the regular season and going 1-1 in the conference and we should be in without too much worry. Go 3-3 and 1-1 and we're sweating on selection day...
 
Lunardi's bracket forum has a steady diet of crying Iowa fans posting about how they should be on the bubble. Anyone care to troll?
 
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