Mar 23, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson watches practice at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The Big 12 basketball season is officially over.
That moment arrived on Sunday when Texas fell to Miami, 88-81, in the Elite Eight, officially ending the league’s national championship streak at two. The Longhorns’ loss made it a double-gut punch weekend for the league after Kansas State was knocked out of the dance by Florida Atlantic on Saturday.
We will get to both of those games in a few minutes, but first, we’re going to start our look ahead to next season’s new-look Big 12 with four new schools and a bunch of fresh faces.
Using BartTorvik.com, I compiled the projections for the league next season based on returning players, freshmen who have already signed and transfers who have already committed.
Obviously, we’re still at the beginning of the college basketball silly season, and one team in the league doesn’t even have a head coach right now. So, with that said, there will be a lot of room for movement between now and next November.
I’ve broken down each team into categories of notable returners and incomers. Each category will include players BartTorvik projects to average five or more points per game next season.
This is where things stand one day after the Big 12’s 2022-23 season ended in order of their projected analytics ranking.
No. 4 – Houston
Nobody else in the league returns more proven firepower than Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars in their first year as members of the Big 12. Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark are the headliners with both projected to average more than 13 points per game next season. J’Wan Roberts, Ramon Walker Jr., Ja’Vier Francis and Emanuel Sharp are all returners expected to make significant contributions. They’ll get help from a pair of four-star freshmen centers in Joseph Tugler and Jacob McFarland. The Cougars could be the preseason No. 1 team in the country if star guard Marcus Sasser elects to return.
No. 8 – Kansas
DaJuan Harris is expected back and will be one of the frontrunners for Big 12 Player of the Year going into the season with a projected 13.6 points and five assists per game. The analytics expect a significant jump from junior center KJ Adams, who projects with 14.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Other key returners include MJ Rice, Ernest Udeh and Zuby Ejiofor. Five-star point guard Elmarko Jackson will help Harris with the ball-handling duties while first-year four-star classmates Chris Johnson, Marcus Adams Jr. and Jamari McDowell will also join the program. I’d imagine help on the wings will be a driving force behind Kansas’ transfer portal pursuits over the next month.
No. 16 – Baylor
Scott Drew’s team returns three players projected to average double figures with LJ Cryer‘s projected 16.8 points per game leading the way. He’ll be a preseason first-team All-Big 12 guy. Jalen Bridges is expected to make a leap as more of a focal piece of the attack with a projected 15 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Langston Love is predicted to average 11.1 points per game in his second year with the program. Veteran stretch big Caleb Lohner will be back, too. The Bears’ recruiting class doesn’t have the same kind of firepower at the top, but Ja’Kobe Walter and Miro Little are four-star players expected to contribute. I’d expect the Bears to be in the market for some veteran help up front at the center position.
No. 28 – Texas Tech
This is the league’s toughest team to project right now until they officially hire a head coach, but it sounds like that could be coming soon with North Texas’ Grant McCasland considered the frontrunner. He’ll inherit a roster with high-level returners Pop Isaacs and Jaylon Tyson both projected to average more than 14 points per game. Daniel Batcho will have a chance to be one of the league’s top centers as a junior. Lamar Washington, KyeRon Lindsay and Kerwin Walton will all have a role. It will be hard to project the impact of any freshmen newcomers until we know who the coach is going to be.
No. 30 – Oklahoma State
Mike Boynton’s returners are spearheaded by the three-headed monster of Bryce Thompson, Moussa Cisse and Quion Williams, all of which are projected to average in double figures next season. Tyreek Smith and Woody Newton will have roles. Brandon Garrison, a 6-foot-8, four-star center from Oklahoma City, is the only freshman projected above five points at this time. The Cowboys need some guards.
No. 33 – Iowa State
BartTorvik didn’t include Tre King or Robert Jones as returners for Iowa State, so the projections are a little harder to nail down. Using the site’s RosterCast tool, I can tell you those additions bumped the Cyclones up more than 20 spots in the rankings. Tamin Lipsey is projected to make a leap and average 11.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists as a sophomore. The projections we have list five-star freshman Omaha Biliew as the team’s leading scorer at 13.7 points per game with a team-high 7.1 rebounds. Four-star forward Milan Momcilovic joins him in double figures with 10.7 points per game projected. King would be a candidate for a double-digit projection if he were included. Jeremiah Williams, a Temple transfer who sat out last year with an Achilles injury, and Demarion Watson will be significant contributors as well. Strong shooting guards and an offensive big man will be the focal points in transfer pursuits.
No. 36 – Cincinnati
The Bearcats’ first Big 12 team includes four returners projected to average double figures scoring, led by Jeremiah Davenport and Mika Adams-Woods‘ projected 14.3 and 13.8 points per game, respectively. Junior 6-foot-11 center Viktor Lakhin is projected to average 12 points and 7.7 rebounds. Daniel Skillings is projected with 10.3 points per game. The Bearcats also have the best name in the league with freshman Jizzle James, a four-star point guard from Orlando, set to join the program.
No. 37 – TCU
Will Mike Miles return for another go-around in Fort Worth? That will be the biggest story of the offseason for the Horned Frogs, and he’s projected to average 18.6 points per game if he does elect to come back. JaKobe Coles is expected to make a jump and projects with 16 points per game and 7.5 rebounds. Micah Peavy joins them with a double figures projection at 12 points game. Xavier Cork and Rondel Walker will be key returners. I’d expect the frontcourt to be a focus on the portal hunt.
No. 40 – BYU
Junior forward Foussenyni Traore is expected to be the centerpiece of BYU’s first Big 12 team and is projected to average 16.7 points and 8.9 rebounds per game next season. Spencer Johnson and Jaxson Robinson are projected to average 13.7 and 10.3 points per game, respectively. Dallin Hall and Trevin Knell are returners expected to make an impact. They’ll have to wait another year to add 2022 Utah Gatorade Player of the Year Collin Chandler, who will be starting year two of a two-year mission overseas. They’ll also add Jake Whalin, who has been on a two-year mission overseas after signing with the program in 2020. That’s a concept that will take some getting used to.
No. 42 – Kansas State
I have no idea who the point guard will be, but the Wildcats should be pretty well set in the frontcourt with Nae’Qwon Tomlin, Ismael Massoud and David N’Guessan all slated to return. Cam Carter is the only contributing guard currently expected back. The Wildcats will also add freshmen guards Dai Dai Ames and RJ Jones. I’d imagine this roster will look a lot different in a few weeks after the portal ramps up.
No. 47 – Texas
This projection comes under the assumption that Tyrese Hunter will not return to Texas for his junior season, but, looking in from the outside, I’d be very surprised if that were the case. Adding Hunter back into the mix leaps this team into the top 30 nationally. Arterio Morris and Alex Anamekwe are the only other returners projected to make significant contributions. Freshmen Ron Holland, AJ Johnson and Rowan Brumbaugh are three of the team’s projected top-five scorers when Hunter isn’t included. The portal will probably impact this team’s roster next season more than any other.
No. 64 – Oklahoma
Returners Milos Uzan and Otega Oweh are projected to average double figures while Sam Godwin checks in at just under 10 a game. Kaden Cooper will be the top freshman and is projected to average 11.2 points per game. This is another team I’d expect to see significantly remade in the portal over the next month.
No. 71 – West Virginia
The Mountaineers have already added a pair of Manhattan transfers, including 2022-23 MAAC preseason Player of the Year Jose Perez, who sat out last season after transferring at mid-year. He’s projected to average 15 points per game at this point. Seth Wilson and Mohamed Wague are returners expected to average double figures. Only two other players are projected over five points per game. Another team will be digging through the portal.
No. 165 – UCF
Welcome to the hornet’s nest, Golden Knights. I can’t imagine this program is looking forward to next season after going 8-10 in the American this year. Darius Johnson, Tyem Freeman and Thierno Sylla are returners expected over 10 points per game. UCF’s current projected adjusted offensive efficiency slates them at No. 233 nationally.
More Musings
*** I was fired up on Sunday after Creighton’s one-point loss to San Diego State in the Elite Eight. This was an intensely physical game from the opening tip. It was the kind of game that requires bone breaking skin in order to get a call around the rim. Blue Jays big man Ryan Kalkbrenner will be needing more than one ice bath to forget about this one.
That’s why I was disappointed to see the foul call against Ryan Nembhard send Darrion Trammell to the free-throw line with 1.2 seconds left, effectively deciding the game. This was after Creighton had to foul with 30 seconds left to even put SDSU into the bonus, and the Blue Jays never reached the bonus. The officials decided to let this game be physical for 39 minutes and 58.8 seconds.
It was the kind of call the officials could have been making the entire game. But, they didn’t… until there were 1.2 seconds on the clock, the entire game was hanging in the balance and a trip to the Final Four was on the line.
There are people who will say, “If it’s a foul, it’s a foul,” and they might be right, but where was that argument when Kalkbrenner was being grabbed, shoved and mauled around the basket for 40 minutes?
I’m not going to lose sleep over it, but it was a weird time to decide to call a bump on a floater in the paint when that hadn’t been a call all day.
*** Credit where credit is due… San Diego State’s defense is some of the best I’ve seen at the college level in a very long time. While they’ve incredibly physical in the paint, they do a fantastic job of guarding without fouling on the perimeter. Brian Dutcher and his staff have built a steel curtain on the hardwood.
*** Kansas State’s staff will be kicking themselves for a long time over the way they approached Saturday’s Elite Eight match-up with Florida Atlantic. Keyonte Johnson getting into early foul trouble didn’t help, but the follow-up to Markquis Nowell’s breakout performance against Michigan State was way too much Markquis Nowell.
Yes, the 5-foot-7 dynamo had been one of the best players in the tournament. Yes, he’s one of the best point guards in the country. Yes, he’s capable of putting the team on his back.
This team also had a lot of good players, though, and it felt like there wasn’t enough of an effort to involve them in what was happening on the court rather than Nowell dribbling the ball around for long stretches before trying to make something happen while everyone else stood around and watched.
Credit Florida Atlantic for taking advantage, but the K-State team we saw in the last six minutes of that game was not the Kansas State team that had advanced to that point in the tournament, which is disappointing.
*** I knew walking out of the arena in Portland back in November that UConn had a special type of team if they could keep things together. They had a midseason lull, but they’ve been spectacular this entire tournament and will enter the weekend as the resounding favorites to take the entire thing.
That said, I’ll take the Huskies to win the title over San Diego State next Monday night. Hopefully, the Huskies will remember to pack their hard hats for that one.
