What’s up, guys. I’m back with a breakdown of where Iowa State – or your second favorite team – sits in the hunt for a postseason birth.
To start off, I’ve split off my document to include the teams that have a realistic shot at going to the postseason.
No offense to any Georgia Tech or Florida International fans reading this, but your team is quite bad. They got no shot.
Anyways, I’ve narrowed the remaining teams down to the 24 programs vying for the remaining 17 slots available.
Of those programs, I forecasted five programs that will almost certainly reach six wins; BYU and Memphis (who each play non-FBS schools this week), Buffalo (which has Akron this week), Wisconsin (Nebraska) and Middle Tennessee (ahem Florida International next week).
That leaves 12 slots for 19 teams.
Now, that also comes with some sets of games that will knock one team out and put another team in.
Ball State and Miami Ohio will likely play next week for a spot. The same is true for Missouri and Arkansas.
Now your number looks like 10 slots with 15 teams leftover. Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are all apart of that group of 15. The only way that each qualify for the postseason would be for Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State this week and Texas Tech to win next Saturday against the Sooners.
So, you’re looking at eight slots remaining with 12 teams, assuming that Iowa State gets a fifth win and one of Tech or Oklahoma doesn’t make it to six.
And bear with me here, because Rice already has five wins and an APR higher than Iowa State. They’ll get the first five-win bid if there is any available.
That leaves you – a Cyclone fan that should want to see this group of players develop with extra practices and continue a program-record postseason streak – with 11 teams to root against over the next two weeks.
Georgia Southern (5-5), vs. Marshall | vs. App. St.
App. State (5-5), vs. Old Dominion | @ Georgia Southern
Southern Miss. (5-5), vs. USA | @ ULM
Louisiana (5-5) @ Florida St. | @ Tex. St.
Georgia State (4-6), @ James Madison | @ Marshall
Michigan State (5-5), vs. Indiana | @ Penn State
Miami (5-5), @ Clemson | vs. Pitt
Utah State (5-5), vs. San Jose St. | @ Boise State
UNLV (4-6), @ Hawaii | vs. Nevada
Florida Atlantic (5-5), @ MTSU | vs. Western Kentucky
UAB (5-5), @ LSU | @ Louisiana Tech
As long as four of those teams don’t finish with six wins, Iowa State will become bowl eligible with a win this week over Texas Tech.
Most national forecasts are calling for two 5-7 teams to be invited. I would be a little more bullish and say three 5-win teams fill into bowl games, but as they say, that’s why they play the games.
Night time update: I wrote this before going to play some hockey and all of the numbers were one number greater, but Bowling Green became the 65th team to clinch bowl eligibility with its win over Toledo on Tuesday. I would say I expect two slots now for 5-7 teams, but again it all comes down to the next two weeks.
