MONDAY MUSINGS: Does Vegas know something?

 

Oct 15, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (5) watch a replay on the video board during the game with the West Virginia Mountaineers at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech opened as a 2-point favorite over Iowa State for Saturday’s 2:30 kick (FS1). The line has since moved to 3.5.

Hmm.

This screams to be one of those “Vegas knows something” type of spreads. It reminds me of Nebraska (+17.5) at Ohio State a few weeks ago or following an upset win over Texas A&M, Mississippi State (+29) at Alabama last week.

For what it’s worth, I had projected this spread to be in the 7-10 range.

I understand that Texas Tech’s defense is a special kind of bad. Ranked 117^th against the pass and 101^st against the run, the Red Raiders have given up an astounding 6.68 yards per play this season – ranked 126^th nationally out of 128.

So yeah, you’d like to think that Iowa State’s 47^th ranked pass offense will be able to do some damage and it probably will.

On the other side though, can Iowa State get enough stops against Tech’s top-ranked offense that cranks out 603.25 yards per game?

I have my doubts, but Vegas sees something here. Perhaps it is anticipating a bit of a Tech letdown following Saturday’s heartbreaking 45-44 loss at Oklahoma State, where a botched PAT kept the Red Raiders from taking the game to overtime.

I’m honestly not sure.

Is Oklahoma a Playoff contender?

I don’t think so.

Granted, a lot can change between now and the middle of December.

But I think we can all agree that the Big 12 is down this year.

Oklahoma had two chances in the non-con to prove its worth as a Playoff team and fell flat in both of them. Houston has since lost games to Navy and SMU while the Sooners didn’t’ even belong on the same field – at home – with Ohio State.

I’d love to somehow sneak a Big 12 team into the Playoff and if Oklahoma goes 9-0 in league play, that’s tough to argue against. But based off of what we have seen from the league this year and the Sooners individually during the non-con, it’s hard for me to get on the Oklahoma Playoff train.